Altered States of Realty

Does NYC exceed Silicon Valley in Venture Funding?

2011-06-27T23:32:00.000-07:00

Let's look at the statistics first according to Q1 2011 Venture Capital Report http://www.cbinsights.com/blog/c....

- As for the Share of Total Venture Capital by State(including Internet, healthcare and energy sector): Transaction: CA39% MA12% NY10% / $ Amount: CA52% MA10% NY6%. California still dominate the market, followed by Massachusetts and New York.

- When it comes to VC investment in Internet business, while CA still dominate with 42% of # of transaction, NY follows CA with 15% share (MA is next with 8% share).

- As for the VC Internet business investments by the cities; San Francisco 49 deals | $315M; New York 39 deals | $218M; Chicago 12 deals | $491M(Large funding to Groupon); Palo Alto 12 deals | $189M; Redwood City 4 deals | $82M; Mountain View 8 deals | $78M; San Mateo, CA; 7 deals | $72M; Seattle, WA 9 deals | $54M; Indianapolis, IN 1 deals | $54M; Los Angeles, CA; 5 deals | $50M. NYC is ranked 2nd although still lags behind Silicon Valley as the whole. It is also notable that City of San Francisco is the largest Internet VC capital destination Vs. cities in Silicon Valley.

- As for the VC transaction on Healthcare business by states (P21), CA37%, MA19% NC2%, PA5%, NJ2%. NY is not even in the list. The fact that Top cities are Redwood City, Cambridge MA, Mountain View and Palo Alto, Healthcare VC investment tend to go to the cities in suburb.

- As for the VC transaction on Green & Clean Tech by states (P29), CA42% MA9% MO3% CO4%. Again NY is not even in the Top 5. Top cities are suburban cities such as Oakland, Santa Clara, Irvine, San Leandro and Sunnyvale.

To summarize, top VC funding destination cities are:

San Francisco 72 deals | $533M
Chicago 12 deals | $491M (Internet business only)
New York 61 deals | $383M
Santa Clara 7 deals | $379M
Palo Alto 23 deals | $322M
Mountain View 20 deals | $222M
Redwood City 14 deals | $215M
Oakland 3 deals | $211M
Irvine 3 deals | $196M
San Jose 11 deals | $193M
Austin 20 deals | $184M
Sunnyvale 10 deals | $170M
Cambridge 19 deals | $163M
San Leandro 1 deals | $135M
Waltham 12 deals | $114M
Seattle 19 deals | $82M
Houston 5 deals | $81M
Dallas 4 deals | $15M

Based on above number, we can conclude that:

- NYC is the 2nd largest city for VC funding, preceded by San Francisco.

- However,compared to Silicon Valley as whole, NY VC funding is probably around 1/4(25%).

- VC Funding on NYC is predominantly (approx. 60%) on Internet business.

- Even in Internet VC funding, NY share is around 1/3 of that of Silicon Valley.

My theory on booming NYC internet start up scene is (and it also explain surging popularity of startup in San Francisco Vs Valley):

- The more and more internet start up business are based on consumer service, social media and advertising based, NYC has good talent pool in industories such as mass media, publishing, advertising and fashion.

- Due to financial crisis, top notch talent has moved from financial industry to internet start up business.

- Young hipster engineers for consumer business prefers to live and walk in walkable, urban environment (Vs. middle age engineers' preference on family and education friendly suburban setting).

- Old money from Wall Street, PE and HF gained risk appetite and funding more on startups.

Lastly, here are some interesting article about booming internet start up scene in NYC, all published in early 2010.

- How Tech Start-ups Like Foursquare and Meetup Are Trying to Overthrow Old Media and Build a Better New York -- New York Magazine http://nymag.com/news/media/65494/

- Tech Start-Ups Eligible for New York City-Sponsored Fund - WSJ.com http://on.wsj.com/cXjVig

New York Isn’t Silicon Valley, and That’s Why They Like It - NYTimes.com http://nyti.ms/9160N9

Hope it helps!

P.S. NYC mayor Mike Bloomberg is very aggressive in turning NYC into Digital City. Here is his Road Map http://www.mikebloomberg.com/NYC....Edit

Short Term Investment Opportunity - Second Mortgage with 10% interest and 25% on Capital Gain

2011-04-30T22:42:00.000-07:00

SUMMARY

- Seeking investor who can provide $600,000 ofsecond mortgage.

- Great opportunity to participate in the shortsale flip transaction --- results in 6 month.

- Guaranteed 10% interest and 25% of capital gain--- projected annualized return of 19% to 49%

- Secure investment with minimum $700,000 inequity.

SECOND MORTGAGE

- We are seeking a investor who can provide$600,000 second mortgage on 2610 Wooldridge Austin Tx 78703, super primelocation luxury proprety in exclusive Pemberton Heights.

- Current lender approved of short sales purchaseat $1.6 milllion, property value is at around $2.3 - $2.4 million, minium$700,000 equity.

- The lender has commited to issue $1.0 million offirst mortgage thus we are seeking $600,000 second mortgage.

- Second mortgag amount is $600,000 for 10%interest. Interest ($5000 a month) will accrued to the principal amountand paid at the time of sales or refinancing ($630,000). The balloonperiod is 6 month.

- In addition, at the completion of resale orrefinance of the property, investor will receive 25% of gross profit. Gross profit is calculated as 90% of resale price (or appraisal value) minus$1.6 million.

- Funding target date is May 10 2011.

- Expected annualized return of 19% to 49% (seebelow chart).

Profit Analysis for Investor

SUBJECT PROPERTY

- - Property Address: 2610 Wooldridge AustinTx 78703

- - 5,258 SQF luxury house on double sized lot 0.65acre(28 226 sqf or 2622m2)

- - 4 bed / 5 bath / 4 living rooms

- - Property Condition property is very goodcondition but needs minor touch up (see attached photos).

- - Located in Pemberton Heights, the mostprestigeous neighborhood in Austin Tx.

- - Property Value: $2.3 - $2.4 million (seeattached comps)

PROPERTY VALUE

- - The most recent two comparable sales inPemberton have is 2422 Wooldridge which sold for $400/sq ft. 1406 Wooldridge ispending at 418 a ft.

- - 2610 Wooldridge is on a 2/3 acre lot (.67 acres)which is a double lot (only one on Wooldrige with access from 2 streets). Theproperty at 2618 Wooldridge, the modern house was listed at $400/sq ft andthere is a smaller house, 6 Green Lane which is 3300 square feet and is listedfor $500/ft.

- - Based on above analysis, we believe the fairmarket value of 2610 Wooldridge is between $2.3 million and $2.4 million.

- - See attached CMA for details.

PROFIT MAKING STRATEGY

- - David Lawrence, renowed contractor on luxuryhouses (see attached resume), will be handling minor remodeling to make theproperty to top condition within a month of upon the closing.

- - David Lawrence will create LLC (name to bedetermined) and this LLC will own the property until it is sold.

- - Once the property rennovation is completed, wewill immediately list the property with the goal of completing transactionwithin 3-4 month.

- Investor will receive 6 month interest even ifproperty is sold less than 6 month.

If you are interested in investing in this excitingopportunty, please contact me.

Gen Shibayama
Oyster Real Estate Investments Inc.
oystersf@yahoo.com

America's Happiest Metros?

2011-02-26T12:00:00.000-08:00

Portfolio.com and Business Journal has conducted 2010 Quality Of Life Index on major metropolitan area based on 24 different criteria. http://www.portfolio.com/interac...

Here are the ranking of 67 metropolitan areas.

Rank   Metro area   Score
1 Raleigh        17.23
2 Washington        16.10
3 Minneapolis-St. Paul        15.59
4 Bridgeport-Stamford, Conn.        15.33
5 Salt Lake City        11.57
6 Denver        10.94
7 Seattle        10.65
8 Boston        10.63
9 Austin          9.84
10 San Jose          9.52
11 Atlanta          8.68
12 Portland, Ore.          8.64
13 Omaha          8.36
14 Hartford          8.11
15 Baltimore          7.36
16 Charlotte          7.22
17 San Francisco-Oakland          6.99
18 Albany          6.97
19 Worcester, Mass.          6.39
20 Richmond          6.36
21 Kansas City          6.02
22 Nashville          5.68
23 Columbus          4.67
24 Indianapolis          4.57
25 Philadelphia          4.37
26 Allentown-Bethlehem, Pa.          4.06
27 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks, Calif.          4.01
28 Phoenix          3.48
29 Dallas-Fort Worth          2.93
30 New Haven, Conn.          2.62
31 Virginia Beach-Norfolk          2.59
32 Cincinnati          2.50
33 Sacramento          2.35
34 Rochester, N.Y.          2.29
35 San Diego          2.20
36 Albuquerque          2.14
37 Grand Rapids          2.10
38 Chicago          1.92
39 NewYork City          1.73
40 St. Louis          1.60
41 Honolulu          1.20
42 Orlando          0.87
43 Milwaukee          0.50
44 Jacksonville        (0.27)
45 Louisville        (0.46)
46 Birmingham        (0.52)
47 Houston        (0.68)
48 Pittsburgh        (0.78)
49 Oklahoma City        (1.29)
50 Tucson        (1.63)
51 Tulsa        (1.75)
52 Providence        (2.09)
53 San Antonio        (2.69)
54 Buffalo        (3.04)
55 LasVegas        (3.15)
56 Baton Rouge, La.        (3.23)
57 Detroit        (3.52)
58 Tampa-St. Petersburg        (3.52)
59 Cleveland        (3.86)
60 Dayton        (4.12)
61 Los Angeles        (4.44)
62 Miami-Fort Lauderdale        (4.52)
63 Riverside-San Bernardino, Calif.        (5.66)
64 Memphis        (7.41)
65 New Orleans      (10.92)
66 Fresno, Calif.      (13.85)
67 Bakersfield, Calif.      (14.40)

Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index is also good indicator. http://www.well-beingindex.com/s...

Here is the latest results on most and worst Well-Being Cities among large metropolitan area. http://www.gallup.com/poll/12586...

There seems to be surprising similarity to Portfolio's top 20 metro!

Hope it helps!

Why Invest in Austin Tx Real Estate Market

2011-02-26T09:26:00.000-08:00

This is my answer to the following question: "How are things in Austin real estate wise? I've been told it is a great city that has seen some growth within the real estate market?"

Austin Tx enjoyed one of the most stable during Great Recession and is one of the few metropolitan area where economy has been growing. http://alteredstatesofrealty.blo...

Austin's real estate market is quite steady and is one of the least affected market on real estate bubble burst. Here are recent data from FHFA and NAR on Single Family Housing median price.

- FHFA Q4 2010 report, Austin housing appreciated by18.78, but down -1.05% over last 1 year. http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/198...
- NAR: 2008=188.6 Vs. Q42010=190.3. But down from Q32010=205.0 http://www.realtor.org/wps/wcm/c...

Having said that, at the peak of real estate boom at around 2007, approx. 20% Austin Tx real estate purchase was by the investors (mostly out of states like Californian). This has pushed up investment properties' value (say Duplex, Triplex and Fourplex) much higher compared to rental income. For example, in prime central Austin location, at the peak of market, gross rental yield is around 6-7% of purchase price (Cap rate of 4-5%). Since recent purchase of investment properties are primarily driven by cash-flow hungry experienced investors, you can get similar property at 10% gross yield or 8% in cap rate. Since mortgage rate is very low, you can enjoy very good cash flow (say 15-20% cash on cash return on 20% down payment).

As for the location of the investment, I would strongly prefer the so called central Austin In below MLS map, I would recommend Area 6, 7 DT, UT, 3, 1B and 4. My rationale is that 1) Austin is quite centralized --- key economic engine such as UT Austin, State Capital and culturally unique neighborhood are located in Central Austin, 2) Central Austin has strong restriction on new development (like rest of Texas, suburb are sprawling).

As you can see from above link regarding Austin economy, Austin Tx will be continuously one of the fastest growing metropolitan area in terms of GDP and population growth. Therefore , purchasing property in prime central Austin market, I believe, is great short- and long-term investment.

Austin Tx --- real estate / economy related news

2011-02-26T08:24:00.001-08:00

While Austin is mid size metropolitan area with 1.6 million in population, the population growth between 2007 and 2009 is the highest in USA. http://bit.ly/geH9IF

Chef at Globe Restaurant in San Francisco is leaving for Austin Tx --- REASONS: affordable cost and high quality of living and 2) wanting to own his own restaurant. http://bit.ly/hW1qPc

Austin Leads Country in Job Growth: http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7224282n CBS news feature on brisk economy in Austin Tx.

Austin succeeded to bring in 27 out-of-state companies in 2010. http://bit.ly/hATJcu Short list is Hanger Orthopedic Group, Facebook, LegalZoom and SunPower. Tax/regulation heavy California is major target.

Austin apartment rental market is recovering steadily. http://bit.ly/gfFe3C Vacancy rate has increast by 3.5 points to 6.5%. Monthly rent has increased by 2.4% to $805. Total supply of new units are 3027 while # of households increased by 9340.

Racial mix of Austin neighborhoods between 2005 and 2009. http://bit.ly/fQLYHS It is evident that blacks and his panics have been pushed away from Central Austin including East Austin to exurb.

Austin is ranked No.1 by.Forbes Best Cities for Young Adults 　http://bit.ly/eXgCnu

Austin ranked No.7 in highest concentration of Tech Workers. http://bit.ly/eXYIKk San Jose 29%, Huntsville 23%, Boulder 22%, Washington DC 13%, Boston 11%, SD11%, Austin 11%, Seattle 10%, San Francisco 10%.

Austin's Tech employee average salary ($93K)　 http://bit.ly/eXYIKk

Austin is considered one of the small housing inventory by CoreLogics http://bit.ly/a05iIe

Travis County (Austin metro) is ranked 57th most liberal counties in USA. 　http://bit.ly/c4bgxw

CNBC ranks Austin 5th as metropolitan area to move to;. http://tinyurl.com/2etm2bl

Austin ranked 5th as the best cities for movie making by MovieMagazine. http://bit.ly/b1ZyiD

Austin ranked No.1 as the metropolitan area with the most brisk economy.　http://bit.ly/8ZTkGE

Austin ranked No.3 by Forbes best place to invest in real estate. http://bit.ly/d0D1AZ

Austin chosen as one of the 10 cities to move by Kiplinger Magazine. http://bit.ly/b3xsv6　CNCB’s Maria’s interview on Kiplinger Magazine. http://bit.ly/9rT72x

Austin’s per-capita consumption power is the highest in USA by Bundle. http://bit.ly/9DWX6X

Heartland - Anthony Bourdain: No Reservations TravelGuide http://bit.ly/aVPITg http://bit.ly/b6b3A6

Austin is chosen as the metropolitan area where economy is about to recover. http://bit.ly/bwZAAH Austin enjoys migration from large US metros such as NYC, LA and SF. http://twitpic.com/35pfc3

Fastest growing North American Metropolitan Area by National Geographics,　http://bit.ly/8Y31Bf

What are some good ways to compare cost of living between cities?

2011-02-03T16:22:00.001-08:00

One way to find out the cost of living is to use the calculator(see below). This is good way to start COL comparison on 2 cities you are looking at.

- http://www.bestplaces.net/col/
- http://www.bankrate.com/calculat...
- http://swz.salary.com/CostOfLivi...

Then, please take a look at detail of ACCRA Cost of Living Index (COLI)http://www.houstontx.gov/police/.... You see that expesive housing is the key reason for high cost of living in so-called high cost metro such as San Francisco and New York. SF Housing index 273 Vs Houston's 80.

Therefore, I pay special attentions to housing cost by checking out website such as:

- http://www.rentometer.com/
- http://www.craigslist.org/about/...
- http://www.zillow.com/
- http://trulia.movity.com/rentvsbuy/

Then 2nd largest factors you should look at the tax. If you make $100K+, you have to pay approx. 10% on state tax in high cost states such as California and New York. And, on top of it, because of progressive tax system, you end up paying more on federal income tax if you move to high cost (but high salary state such as CA/NY.

Lastly, I find below link very useful on studying COL.

- Kiplinger's ranking of cost of living by 367 metropolitan area. You can also compare with creative class workforce, median household income and income growth.
http://www.kiplinger.com/tools/b...

- Portfolio's 2010 Quality of Life: Major Markets. You can study the cities by 20 different criterias!
http://www.portfolio.com/interac...

Best Cities for Singles??? Look no further.....

2011-02-03T16:21:00.001-08:00

Here is various Best Cities for Singles ranking!

America's Best Cities for Singles Travel + Leisurehttp://www.travelandleisure.com/... 1. New Orleans, 2 Miami, 3. Austin

2009 Forbes Best Cities for Singles http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/27... 1. NYC 2. Boston 3. Chicago

2010: Top 10 Cities for Single Women by SingleMindedWomenhttp://singlemindedwomen.com/mon... 1. Boston 2. DC 3. New York City

America's Best Cities For Young Professionals - Forbeshttp://www.forbes.com/2010/06/17... 1. Houston 2. Washington DC 3. Minneapolis

The Best Cities for Dating - Sperling's http://www.bestplaces.net/docs/s... 1. Austin, TX 2. Colorado Springs, CO 3. San Diego, CA

10 Great Cities For Young Adults for Next 10 years Kiplingerhttp://yhoo.it/e1dCxo 1. Austin 2. Charlotte 3. Chicago

Forbes America's Best Cities For Young Adultshttp://www.forbes.com/2010/12/15... 1. Austin 2. Houston 3. New York City

Party School Ranking http://bit.ly/hhfebs Princeton Review 1. University of Georgia 2. Ohio University 3. Penn States Playboy 1. UT Austin 2. West Virginia University 3. University of Wisconsin at Madison

Why is rain so rare during the summer in the Palo Alto / Stanford area, yet frequent in the winter?

2011-02-03T16:17:00.000-08:00

According to Wikipedia's Palo Alto climate page, Santa Cruz Mountains plays as "rain shadow" resulting in an average annual rainfall of only 15.32 inches (389 mm). http://bit.ly/gGBZfL

As for the "rainy winter", here is the explanations from Wiki's Bay Area climate section. http://bit.ly/hf2QkC

Winter storms are typically wet and mild in temperature during this time of year, being caused by cold fronts sweeping the eastern Pacific and often originating in the Gulf of Alaska. During November into mid March, winter storms are usually several days in length, wet and cool, with severely damaging storms rare.

Lastly, this is great article about microclimates of San Francisco Bay Area. I highly recommend reading this article to understand that science behind microclimates.

Weather as varied as the people / Land and fog build summer microclimates
July 09, 2001|By Harold Gilliam, Special to The Chronicle http://articles.sfgate.com/2001-...

Crystal Springs Gap (Wind Tunnel)

Farther south on the Peninsula, the San Andreas Fault cuts through the range, producing the Crystal Springs gap, partly occupied by San Francisco's Crystal Springs reservoirs. The breeze through the gap causes Redwood City to be a bit less warm in summer than it would be minus the gap, and the cooling effect sometimes extends as far south as San Jose.

p.s. According to meteorologist Jan Null of Golden Gate Weather Services—who’s been tracking SF weather patterns for decades, the warmest, sunniest patch of SF theoretically lies in the southern Mission, away from water, hills and wind patterns. “Right around Garfield Square,” he says. Debate over. http://www.7x7.com/arts/7-best-n...

If there would be one single capital of the world, which city should it be and why?

2011-02-03T16:13:00.000-08:00

Here are some global city rankings for your thoughts:

Global Power City Index 2009 http://www.mori-m-foundation.or....
1. NY, 2. London, 3. Paris, 4. Tokyo, 5. Singapore, 6. Berlin, 7.Vienna, 8. Amsterdam 9. Zurich 10. Hong Kong

A.T. Kearney Global Cities Index http://www.atkearney.com/images/...
1. NY, 2. London, 3. Tokyo, 4. Paris, 5. Hong Kong 6. Chicago, 7. LA, 8, Singapore, 9. Sydney, 10. Seoul

PwC Citie of Opportunities http://www.pwc.com/en_US/us/citi...
1. NY, 2. London, 3. Tokyo, 4. Paris, 5. Beijing, 6. Hong Kong, 7. Singapore, 8. Seoul, 9. Shanghai, 10. Chicago

The 150 richest cities (metropolitan area) in the world by GDP in 2005http://www.citymayors.com/statis...
1. Tokyo, 2. NY, 3. LA, 4. Chicago, 5. Paris, 6. London, 7. Osaka, 8. Mexico City, 9. Philadelphia, 10. Washington DC
* Richest cities and urban areas in 2020 http://www.citymayors.com/statis...

World's largest urban areas Population in 2006 http://www.citymayors.com/statis...
1. Tokyo, 2. Mexico City, 3. Mumbai, 4. NY, 5. Sao Paulo, 6. Delhi, 7. Calcutta, 8. Jakarta 9. Buenos Aires, 10. Dhaka
* 2020 Population forecast http://www.citymayors.com/statis...

Global Financial Center Ranking http://www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/N...
1. NY/London 3. Hong Kong, 4. Singapore, 5. Tokyo, 6. Chicago, 7. Zurich, 8. Shenzhen, 9. Sydney, 10. Shanghai

Mega-Region Ranking by Richard Florida http://creativeclass.typepad.com...Page 31 - 1. Greater Tokyo, 2. Bos-NY-Wash. 3. Chicago-Pittsburgh, 4. Amsterdam-Brussels-Antwarp, 5. Osaka-Nagoya, 6. London-Leed-Chester, 7. Rome-Milan-Turin, 8. Charlotte-Atlanta., 9. Southern California, 10. Frankfurt-Gar

Which is currently the most creative city in the world?

2011-02-03T16:11:00.000-08:00

Below are leading ranking/indicator regarding creativity of global and US cities for your reference.

GLOBAL INDEX

Global Power City Index http://www.mori-m-foundation.or.... On page 19, you can see Cultural Interaction ranking as follows; London, NYC, Paris, Berlin, Singapore, Tokyo, Vienna, Beijing, HK & Sydney.

World Knowledge Competitiveness Index 2008 http://www.cforic.org/downloads.php
1 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, US 248.3
2 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, US 175.3
3 Hartford, US 175.1
4 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, US 174.7
5 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, US 160.8
6 Stockholm, Sweden 151.8
7 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, US 151.3
8 Providence-Fall River-Warwick, US 147.1
9 Tokyo, Japan 147.0
10 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, US 146.1

Global Media Cities Index http://www.lboro.ac.uk/gawc/rb/r... (Table 2)
1     New York    100
2     London      71.73
3 Paris 56.7
4     Tokyo 54.8
5     Washington 52.5
6     Beijing     51.6
7     Hong Kong   48.9
8     Shanghai    48.1
9     Seoul 47.5
10    Taipei      45.8

US INDEX

US Only - Percentage of Workforce in Creative Class among 367 metroshttp://www.kiplinger.com/tools/b... Out of metros with 1.5 million population, the following metros are ranked high; Portland Or, Austin Tx, Houston Tx, Minneapolis MN, Boston, LA, SF

Richard Florida's Creativity Index
1. San Francisco 1057
2. Austin   1028
3. San Diego      1015
3. Boston   1015
5. Seattle 1008
6. Chapel Hill    996
7. Houston 980
8. Washington     964
9. New York 962
10. Dallas 960
10. Minneapolis   960

Cities where Hipsters Live......

2011-02-03T16:06:00.001-08:00

While this is not "district" data, Bohemian Index one of few way to measure hipster density by the metropolitan area.

The definition by Richard Florida: "The index charts the concentration of working artists, musicians, writers, designers, and entertainers across metropolitan areas." So it measures only those with art, music or another "bohemian" vocation as a primary job.

More detailed explanation: http://www.creativeclass.com/rfc...

Here is Top 10 / Bottom 10 metros.

Source: http://www.theatlantic.com/natio...

As for the district, below is the ranking of "hipster" neighborhood bynabewise.com

- San Francisco http://nabewise.com/sf/overview/... 1. Mission Dolores, 2. Mission District, 3. Polk Gulch

- New York City http://nabewise.com/nyc/overview... 1. Greenpoint, 2. South Williamsburg, 3. East Williamsburg, 4. Red Hook, 5. Williamsburg

- Boston http://nabewise.com/boston 1. Davis Square, 2. Fort Point 3. Charlestown

- Chicago http://nabewise.com/chicago/over... 1. Wicker Park, 2. Logan Square, 3. Rogers Park

- Seattle http://nabewise.com/seattle 1. Fremont, 2. Capitol Hill, 3. University District

Which large city (10 million+) has the least or best managed traffic?

2011-02-03T16:05:00.000-08:00

A couple of interesting statistics that may help identifying least/best managed traffic among mega cities. It seems like mega cities in emerging markets such as Johannesburg, Sao Paolo, Mumbai/New Dehli are consistently rated least managed and public transportation heavy Paris, Tokyo and London are rated best managed.

Commuter Pain Index
http://www.theatlantic.com/inter... Out of 20 surveyed cities, Stockholm, Melbourne, Houston, NY and Montreal are ranked to least painful while Beijing, Mexico City, Johannesburg, Moscow and New Dehli are considered worst.

PwC 2010 Cities of Opportunity Study - Transportation Ranking.
http://www.pwc.com/en_US/us/citi...
Best: Paris, Chicago, London, Tokyo and Beijing
Worst: Johanesburg, Sao Paulo, Mumbai, Toronto and Santiago

Transport-related Energy Consumption Gigajoules per capita per year
http://www.treehugger.com/densit...Best: Hong Kong, Moskow, Singapore, Tokyo, Amsterdam, Vienna, etc
Worst: Houston, Phoenix, Detroit, Denver, LA, SF, Boston, etc..

p.s.

Best Commute In US Cities
http://money.bundle.com/content/...
Among large metro, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Portland, Cincinati, Philadelphia, Boston and Detroit are ranked high

Is Mumbai in a real estate bubble? Why or why not?

2011-02-03T16:03:00.002-08:00

Here is interesting article from Times of India "High flat rates give rental market in Mumbai a boost" http://timesofindia.indiatimes.c...

According to this article, real estate price in Mumbai has gone up by 30% over last 6 month (certainly the clear sign of bubble!). If you are purchase 2 bed room condo in Goregaon, the price is Rs 12 mil ($260K). By putting 15% down and borrow the rest at 9% interest rate, your monthly payment is Rs 90,000 ($2,000) a month (on top of it you pay HOA, insurance and property tax). The rent on equivalent property is Rs 20,000 (gross yield of 2.5%).

Thus, if you are to determine the property value on rental yield, Mumbai real estate is certainly "bubble" territory

Which US cities have the best salary-to-rent ratios for IT professionals?

2011-02-03T16:03:00.000-08:00

Here is the ranking calculated based on effective rent on apartment by each metropolitan area, divided by IT employees' average salary. Sunbelt and Rustbelt cities with low average rent (such as Dallas, St. Louis, Houston, Columbus, Phoenix, etc..) are offering relatively low rent compared to IT salary.

the salary of Tech employees via CyberCities 2010 report from TechAmerica Foundation. http://www.techamericafoundation...

2011 National Apartment Report by Markus & Millichap http://scr.bi/egnj3G

HOWEVER, please note the following issues on this comparison.

- IT salary is usually 50% higher than average salary in each metropolitan area. Therefore those who are making average IT salary tend to live in more upscale apartment than average ones. Therefore the rent ratio should higher.

- New York City rent is based on Manhattan rent. If you are to include broader New York metro apartment rent, it should be drastically lower than $2901 effective rent.

Hope it helps!

Would Austin be a good city of retirement? If so, what would be the best part of the city for someone with a modest pension to retire on?

2011-02-03T16:02:00.000-08:00

I think Austin is one of the desired place to retire in US because of the following reason:

- Cost of living is below US average (94 Vs US average of 100)http://www.kiplinger.com/tools/b...
- Warm climate
- Vibrant culture (live music, University of Texas, cuisine, etc..)

Therefore, between 2000 and 2008, Austin had 37% growth in 65+ population ----- one of the highest growth rate among US cities.

On the other hands, the challenge of retiring in Austin is:

- Brutally hot summer weather (105+ days with 90F+ temperature)http://ggweather.com/camelot.htm
- Automotive dependence and traffic jam (Ranked worst 10)http://money.bundle.com/content/...
- Entry price for housing in prime central Austin is $200K+ or $1500 a month.

While I am big fan of Walkable neighborhoods, I recommend the following neighborhoods with high walkability score. http://www.walkscore.com/TX/Austin

(Walk Score/Rent/Condo Purchase /SFR Purchase)
- Downtown (89/$1500/$250K/NA)
- West University (86/$1200/$200K)
- University Of Texas (86/$1200/$200K/$300K)
- Triangle State (84/$1000/150K/$250K)
- North University (83/$1200/$200K/$300K)
- Hyde Park (80/$1200/$200K/$300K)
- Bouldin (80/$1200/$200K/$300K)
- Dawson (79/$1000/$150K/$250K)
- Hancock (78/$1200/$200K/$300K)
- Old West Austin (76/$1200/$200K/$300K)
- North Loop (75/$1000/$150K/$250K)
- Zilker (73/$1000/$150K/$250K)
- Brentwood (73/$800/$120K/$200K)

So, if you have cash to buy condo or Single Family House in above neighborhood, I trust you can make decent life with "moderate" pension in above neighborhood.

Mega Cities with the Largest Public Transportation Ridership

2011-02-03T16:00:00.000-08:00

There are a few interesting research on this matter. I think Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore are leaders in this category!

Public Transport Market Share Trends:
International Urban Areas from 1980 http://www.publicpurpose.com/ut-...

It is bit old data but public transportation market share the cities should stay somewhat same. Hong Kong, Tokyo, Jakarta, Singapore and Manila are Top 5 cities.

It is interesting to note the public transportation usage declined average 19%. This must be attributed to 1) suburban sprawl, 2) automotive penetration in developing countries and 3) increase of tele-commutes and self-employed.

Metro systems by annual passenger rides http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Met...

1. Tokyo Subway 3.160B
2. Moscow Metro 2.392B
3. Seoul Subway 2.048B
4. Beijing Subway 1.595B
5. New York City Subway 1.579B
6. Paris Métro 1.479B
7. Mexico City Metro 1.414B
8. Hong Kong MTR 1.41B
9. Shanghai Metro 1.3B
10. London Underground 1.065B

PwC's Cities of Opportunity Report-- Public Transportation Index
http://www.pwc.com/en_US/us/citi...
Paris, Chicago, London, Tokyo and Beijing ranked top 5 in Public Transportation sector of Cities of Opportunity report.

Hope it helps!

2011 Real Estate Forecast by Major Metro

2011-01-27T21:48:00.000-08:00

Here are several forecast of residential real estate price by US metropolitan areas.

In summary:
- The metropolitan area in agriculture and mining oriented central US states are doing ok.
- Metros in Texas where job growth is very strong are doing good.
- The real estate price in major metros in coastal Northeast (NY/BOS/DC) and CA (SF/SJ/LA/SD) seems to be bottomed and have upside.
- The decline continues in Real estate bubble popped areas in NV/AR/FL and inland CA.

1. CC http://jasper.clearcapital.com/u...

2. LLM http://yhoo.it/hPrmxO　

- Top 10 markets are San Jose 3%; Orange County 3%; Betheda 2%; Pittsburgh 2%; San Diego 2%; Oklahoma City 1%; Washington DC 1%; Austin 1%; Boston 1%

- Bottom 10 markets are Daytona Beach -11% Orlando -6% Boise -7% Las Vegas -5%

3. Housingpredictor.com

Happy Investing!!!

Vancouver maybe best place to live BUT......

2011-01-27T06:28:00.001-08:00

Vancouver is certainly one of the most desired place to live if you have large savings and can afford to live warmer/sunnier place in winter.

Here is some interesting statistics/news about Vancouver:

MERCER Quality of Life Ranking - Primarily targeting expatriates.

http://www.citymayors.com/featur...

Vancouver is ranked 4th.

ECONOMIST Intelligence Unit Livable Cities (2008)

http://econ.st/i4jhhy

Vancouver is ranked 1st.

MONOCLE Quality of Life Ranking

http://www.monocle.com/specials/...

Vancouver is ranked 16th.

HOWEVER, accordingly Demographia's International Housing Affordability Study 2011, Vancouver's median housing price is 9.5 times median household income. Third worst affordability after Hong Kong and Sydney.

http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf

Some of the urban planners are wondering as follows:
HOW CAN CITIES WITH UNAFFORDABLE HOUSING BE RANKED AMONG THE MOST LIVABLE CITIES IN THE WORLD?

http://www.newgeography.com/cont...

Unlivable Vancouver | Newgeography.com

http://www.newgeography.com/cont...

VANCOUVER: PLANNER’S DREAM, MIDDLE CLASS NIGHTMARE

http://bit.ly/cxku1o

Will any of the fifty largest cities in 2050 world be located in the USA or Europe?

2011-01-25T23:01:00.000-08:00

Will any of the fifty largest cities in 2050 world be located in the USA or Europe?

Please state why you believe either way.

Right now, if I counted correctly, there are ten European and US cities in the Top 50 (eleven with Moscow). With the continuing growth of Asian and African cities, will this still be the case in fourty years?

Firstly, let's take a look at world population growth forecast from 2010 Vs. 2030 Vs. 2050. You can see that growth in absolute number is coming from Asia but the fastest growing region is Africa.

World population - Wikipedia http://bit.ly/hmi6ns

This is Demographia World Urban Areas &Population Projection for 2030 Vs 2009. http://www.demographia.com/db-wo...

You can see that growth rate for mega cities in African (100%+ growth) Asian (50%+ growth) emerging market is very high while the growth for North American and European cities is very slow (except for US Sunbelt cities such as Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and Atlanta).

From US and Europe, 7 cities (NY, London, Paris, LA, Dallas, Atlanta and Moscow) will be in Top 50 by 2030.

So, in 2050, NY and LA will stay as Top 50 metro. Moscow is very likely as well. However London and Paris is probably out of Top 50 metro ranking. Dallas, Atlanta and Houston may make Top 50 list IF they continue to grow in the same pace as they would between 2010 and 2030.

How does Austin compare to Silicon Valley as a place to live and work (in tech)?

2011-01-22T13:02:00.000-08:00

My answer on Quora to: How does Austin compare to Silicon Valley as a place to live and work (... http://qr.ae/FHc7

I live in San Francisco (used to work in Silicon Valley) but invest in real estate in Austin Tx full time. I can points out some statistical difference between SF Bay Area Vs. Austin Tx.

Summary: If you plan to strike it rich in tech OR can afford to enjoy one of the best weather/amenity, come to Silicon Valley. But, if you rather enjoy slower pace of life with family, Austin is the place to be.

METRO POPULATION 2009

Austin: 1,705,075 (Ranked 35th)
Total SF Bay: 6,157,553 (Ranked 5th as combined)

SF-Oakland 4,317,853

San Jose-Sunnyvale 1,839,700

Wikipedia: http://model-ist.cgsociety.org/g...
METRO POPULATION 2025

Austin: 2,735,687 (Ranks 25th - 60% increase from 2009)
SF Bay: 7,080,373 (Ranks 7th - 15% increase)

SF-Oakland: 4,901,988

San Jose-Sunnyvale: 2,178,385

Business Journal: http://www.thaindian.com/newspor...
2007-2009 POPULATION GROWTH (Adults with college degree)

Austin has attracted most adults with college degree in this period by attracting middle class folks from high cost metros.

SF has somehow turned around negative migration trend after 2007.
Brooking Institute: http://www.brookings.edu/opinion...
2009 GMP (Gross Metropolitan Products)

Austin: $82B (Ranked 35th)
SF Bay: $449B (Ranked 4th)
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA $306B
San Jose-Sunnyvale CA: $143B
US Mayor: http://www.usmayors.org/metroeco...

PER CAPITA GMP 2009
Austin: $48,091
SF Bay: $72,918
TECH POPULATION/SALARY/RATIO
- Silicon Valley(San Jose metro) has the highest tech employees ratio and salary with $132K. As for # of workers, total Bay Area tech population of 393K is the largest in USA.- Austin's tech concentration is quite high at 11% but no way closer to that of Silicon Valley. Total tech population is 65K (Vs SF bay's 393K). Salary is also moderately high at $93K.

TechAmerica Foundation: http://bit.ly/fMvH3g

VENTURE CAPITAL FUNDING
When it comes to VC funding, no metro come close to Silicon Valley. In 2010, Silicon Vally is forecast to attract $8.5 billion in VC funding (approx. 40% of total US VC funding), while Texas (including Dallas, Houston and Austin) attract $995 million (or 4.62% share).

National Venture Capital Association Q3 2010 Statistics http://bit.ly/hHs41G

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT/HH INCOME/INCOME HOUSING RATIO
- Silicon Valley (San Jose metro) is one the highest educational attainment in USA --- therefore median household income (at $87K) is one of the highest. However, due to rack of land, housing price for middle class family is most expensive (at $739K) and Income Vs. Housing Ratio is out of controll (at 8.52).
- While Austin's educational attainment is second tier, it is ranked 7th in large metro in US. Median household income of $57K is not that high (remember -- Austin's household is skewed to those in 20's), since housing is affordable (at $176K), Income Vs. Housing Ratio is 3.03, the lowest among brainy metros.

Portfolio.com: http://www.bol.com/nl/p/nederlan...
COST OF LIVING
There are so many cost of living index but I find the ACCRA Cost of Living Index (COLI) quite accurate. http://bit.ly/gMcYqo

The ACCRA Cost of Living Index measures regional differences in the cost of consumer goods and services, excluding taxes and non-consumer expenditures, for professional and managerial households in the top income quintile. It is based on more than 90,000 prices covering 60 different items for which prices

are collected quarterly by chambers of commerce, economic development organizations, and university applied economic centers in each participating urban area. Small differences should not be interpreted as showing a measurable difference.

The composite index is based on six component categories – housing, utilities, grocery items, transportation, health care and miscellaneous goods and services.

SF Bay Area is super expensive (162 in SF and 152 in SJ) while Austin is at around 95.

Ranking Urban Areas Index Ranking Urban Areas Index
1 New York (Manhattan) NY 207.9
2 New York (Brooklyn) NY 181.3
3 Honolulu HI 167.8
4 San Francisco CA 162.0
5 New York (Queens) NY 158.5
6 San Jose CA 152.4
7 Truckee-Nevada County CA 147.4
8 Orange County CA 145.7
9 Oakland CA 144.0
10 Nassau County NY 144.
* US average is 100.

* if you look into detail of COLI http://bit.ly/fZ3XQB, you see that expesive housing is the key reason for high cost of living in above markets. SF Housing index 273 Vs Houston's 80.
Remember, on top of it, if you make $100K+, you are charged approx. 10% on California state tax and, because of progressive tax system, you end up paying more if you get salary rise.....

QUALITY OF LIFE (No consideration on cost of living)

Here is yet another interesting study on Quality of Living Ranking by Metropolitan Area by David Albouy, University of Michigan Economics professor.

ARE BIG CITIES REALLY BAD PLACES TO LIVE? IMPROVING QUALITY-OF-LIFE　ESTIMATES ACROSS CITIES

Here is the ranking among top 46 metros. SF Bay Area (and Coastal California metros) by far brings the best quality of life. Austin is not bad at 17th (out of 46) but is far distant from that of SF Bay Area.

1. San Francisco--Oakland--San Jose, CA CMSA
2. San Diego, CA MSA
3. Los Angeles--Riverside--Orange County, CA CMSA
4. Seattle--Tacoma--Bremerton, WA CMSA
5. Miami--Fort Lauderdale, FL CMSA

12 Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA

42 Cincinnati--Hamilton, OH--KY--IN CMSA
43 Memphis, TN--AR--MS MSA
44 Grand Rapids--Muskegon--Holland, MI MSA
45 Buffalo--Niagara Falls, NY g , MSA
46 Houston--Galveston--Brazoria, TX CMSA

Methodology of this study is as follows:

- Heating-Degree Days

- Cooling-Degree Days

- Sunshine, fraction possible

- Precipitation

- Proximity to Coast, salt or fresh water

- Violent Crimes per Capita

- Median Air Quality Index

- Restaurants and Bars per Thousand

- Places Rated Arts & Culture Index

- Residential Land Use Regulatory Index

- Sprawl Index

- Local Expenditures net of Local Taxes

- Federal Spending Differential

WEATHER

Based on Camelot Climate Index: http://ggweather.com/camelot.htm , out of 158 metros, San Francisco and San Jose is ranked 2nd and 3rd respectively (after San Diego) while Austin is ranked 68th.

Is now a good time to buy real estate in Tokyo?

2011-01-13T16:35:00.000-08:00

Is now a good time to buy real estate in Tokyo?
Price has basically kept coming down in the past 20 years, interests rate is lower than Jay Leno and The Tonight Show, while Yen is like highest ever! Should one borrow as much as possible and buy now? http://b.qr.ae/g6L9GJ

At this moment, Japanese yen is very strong against US$. So if you exchange your $ saving into Yen now and purchase real estate in Japan. You are very likely to lose $ based money once Yen become weak. Therefore unless you have large chunk of saving in Yen and committed owning property for very long time, I would not recommend it.

In addition, if you are non-Japanese living outside of Japan, you can not take advantage of at-around 1% residential mortgage (though adjustable). This super low interest rate (and limited supply of good-location condos) are key reason why real estate transaction in Tokyo is pretty active now.

Here is general real estate trend on Tokyo:

- Working age population in Japan is expected to decrease approx. 1% a year. While Tokyo is attract more people from outside, Population in Tokyo is considered "flat" for next 10-20 years.

- The most popular investment property in Tokyo for overseas investors are luxury condo in Central Tokyo. As for the rental yield, luxury unit rent has decreased 20-30% since fall 2008 as many international firms sent expatriates away from Tokyo. Considering current depressed economy, I do not see major upside in expatriates increase.

- Because of over-supply, approx. 11% of residential inventory are vacant. Vacancy rate is increasing steadily.
http://bit.ly/gYqpRA

- Japanese bank do not put any value on "improvement" part of property. So the property aged 35+ years does not get any value EXCEPT for the value of the land. This is the major difference from established world class cities such as New York, London and Paris where land and improvement value increase over time.

You may want to review below site to understand general trend and stats on residential real estate in Japan.

http://www.globalpropertyguide.c...

Good luck!

PS. This is great research paper on Tokyo rental market (Japanese only).

http://www.jresearch.net/house/j...