Elle Macpherson Can’t Counter London Gloom as Americans Flee

Long time not posting.... I got swine flu in early August, rested for a while and was extremely busy with all those short sales negotiations with lender.

Here is very interesting news from Bloomberg regarding American expat fleeing from London.

Elle Macpherson Can’t Counter London Gloom as Americans Flee
http://bit.ly/16OAI3

The number of U.S. citizens in Britain fell 3.8 percent to 126,000 in the 12 months through September, according to the Office for National Statistics. The American School in England, based outside London in Thorpe, Surrey, expects enrollment to fall 4 percent this year, the first drop since the Sept. 11 terror attacks, said Karen House, interim admissions director.

Reasons are:

- Due to tax reform, those who are making more than GBP150,000 are liable for 50% income tax.

- Corporations have cut down expat benefit drastically.

- Financial industry continues to reduce jobs.

- Foreigners who have lived in the country for more than seven years must pay 30,000 pounds annually or give up the special status that shields overseas income from British taxes.

London is one of my favorite cities. I have many friends and clients there and visiting London a few times a year since 1997.

As I wrote about London's real estate price decline in foreign currency, it is said that 50%+ of real estate transaction in Central London are by foreigners.

Also, London is ranked No.2 city for Billionaire --- there are so many wealthy foreigners living in London.

London's economy has been booming for 10+ years and has been very friendly to talented and/or wealthy foreign individuals. However, it seem that, current economic slow down are changing attitudes toward wealthy foreign individuals in London.

This means property price in London continues to go down????

Happy Investing!!!!

Home Sales - Which Metros have Bottomed?

There are quite a lot of housing related data such as Case-Shiller, Realtor.org, FHFA, Dataquick, etc... Because of increased number of transactions, some people think real estate market has bottomed and we begin to see "bidding war" in some markets.

Firstly, I think, it depends on the markets. Secondly, there will be second dip in many markets due to growing foreclosure inventory and deteriorating economy.

There are a few articles about by-metro real estate forecast as follows.

1. WSJ - Home Sales, All Over the Map

Jody Kahn, an analyst at John Burns Real Estate Consulting

GOOD
- Washington DC, especially in Alexandria and Fairfax VA.
- San Diego CA
- Sacramento CA
- Denver CO
- Raleigh, NC
- San Jose, CA
- Austin TX
- San Antonio TX

BAD
- Detroit MI
- Phoenix AZ
- Las Vegas NV
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale FL
- Chicago IL

Thomas Lawler, Lawler Economic & Housing Consulting, LLC

GOOD
- San Diego CA
- Sacramento CA
- Minneapolis MN
- Boston MA
- Washington DC (Virginia suburbs)

BAD (high unemployment and over-supply of housing)
- New York City
- Seattle WA
- Portland OR
- among others

Mark Zandi, Moody’s Economy.com

GOOD
- Washington DC
- Minneapolis MN
- Houston TX
- Dallas TX

BAD
- Detroit MI
- Las Vegas NV
- Los Angeles CA
- Miami FL
- Orlando FL
- Sacramento CA
- Portland, OR.

2. SmartMoney Magazine "5 Housing Markets That Have Further to Fall"

BAD
- Detroit MI
- New York City
- Phoenix AZ
- Portland, Ore.
- Minneapolis

3. HOUSINGPREDICTOR.COM

BAD
Rank Market 2009 Forecast
1. Detroit, MI － 36.8%
2. Manhattan, NY － 32.8%
3. Grand Rapids, MI － 28.4%
4. Phoenix, AZ － 25.9%
5. Miami , FL － 24.2%
6. Long Island, NY － 22.7%
7. Las Vegas, NV － 21.7%
8. Fresno, CA － 20.2%
9. Bakersfield, CA － 19.3%
10. Riverside, CA － 19.1%

HOT
Rank Real Estate Market
1. McAllen, TX
2. Casper, WY
3. Biloxi, MS
4. Logan, UT
5. Bismarck, ND
6. Sioux Falls, SD
7. Austin, TX
8. Corpus Christi, TX
9. Baton Rouge, LA
10. Idaho Falls, ID

To summarize:

- There are massive amount of http://bit.ly/3gBsd of foreclosed properties. At one point, bank will start fire sales and bring price down significantly.

- Metropolitan areas that face high unemployment rate (like Las Vegas) will continuously have downward pressure on real estate price.

- High end and luxury properties so far tend to hold on high value compared mid-to-low priced properties. Due to increasing lay off and deteriorating economy, there likely to be price correction in high-end market.

- On the contrary, real estate price in metros with steady economy may have reached bottom.

Therefore, the real estate value in Las Vegas, Arizone, Florida and inland California (with high unemployment and massive foreclosure) are very likely to have second dip. In addition, real estate value in the markets like Seattle, New York City and Portland (where real estate correction started last) are likely to continuous fall.

Happy Investing!!!

On 'Foreclosure Road' in Spain, Bargains Abound - WSJ.com

This is Wall Street Journal article about slumping real estate market in Spain.

On 'Foreclosure Road' in Spain, Bargains Abound - WSJ.com http://bit.ly/ZB7Pk

While I've pointed out ugliness of real estate bubble in Europe, especially UK, Ireland and Spain (situation in Eastern Europe and Baltic countries are much worse), there are quite lot of similarity.

1. Spanish bubble was driven by UK investors and second home buyers. While Las Vegas/Phoenix bubble were driven by Californians.

2. There are foreclosure and builder close out bus tour in Spain like that in Las Vegas and Phoenix.

3. Property price has dipped by 60-50% in Spain (as did Las Vegas and Phoenix).

4. There are significant over supply of housing.

I guess it is sign of globalization and sharing best practice!

Happy Investing!!!!

As Boom Times Sour in Vegas, Upward Mobility Goes Bust .

Very interesting article about Las Vegas economy from Wall Street Journal.

Boom time in tourism and construction have provided opportunities for blue color worker Upward Mobility. Union workers in hospitality business was paid appropriate $17/hour. Some made fat tip such as valet parking attendants' average $500.

As economy faltered (12%+ unemployment rate), those days of upward mobile day for service workers seems long gone....

As I wrote in the past, Las Vegas real estate price continue to decline as foreclosure and unemployment continuously rise.......

How much U.S. metros will grow by 2025?

US is one of few advanced countries where population is continue to grow (thanks for immigrants!) and by 2050, the population is expected to grow to 438 million. However, some metropolitan area growth faster than others.

Business Journal has introduced metropolitan area's population growth to 2025. I have re-analyzed data among metropolitan area with 1 million population or larger as follows:

- New York City/Los Angeles/Chicago, Top 3 metros in 2005, maintain Top 3 status in 2025 but population growth rate is very low at 5.35%/9.63%/8.97% respectively.

- Among Top 10 metros, Sunbelt metros such as Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Atlanta & Phoenix grow very rapidly at the growth rate of 50.41％, 48.51%, 47.77％ & 79.11% respectively.

- The fastest growing metros are Raleigh, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla., Austin, Phoenix, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Orlando, Jacksonville, Riverside-San Bernardino, Calif., McAllen-Edinburg, Texas, Bakersfield, Calif. & Dallas-Fort Worth. These metros will grow 50% in population.

- The declining metros are New Orleans(-19.32%), Buffalo(-9.71%), Cleveland(-8.91%), Pittsburgh(-6.84%), Rochester, N.Y(-2.43%) and Detroit(-1.32%). Except New Orleans, they are all located in Rustbelt area.

- Growh of Metros in North East such as Providence, Hartford, Philadelphia, New York City and Boston is below 10%. In other words, comparatively, North East has less importance in terms of economy.

- Metros in West Coast such as Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco-Oakland, San Jose, Seattle, Portland, Ore. grow moderately between 10% to 34%. I would say that explosive growth is days of the past.

2025 rank	Metro area	2025 population	Growth	Rank Up/Down
1	New York City	19,818,478	5.35%	0
2	Los Angeles	14,049,577	9.63%	0
3	Chicago	10,233,137	8.97%	0
4	Dallas-Fort Worth	8,750,408	50.41%	0
5	Houston	7,875,220	48.51%	2
6	Atlanta	7,308,508	47.77%	3
7	Phoenix	6,937,737	79.11%	6
8	Miami-Fort Lauderdale	6,590,616	22.61%	-2
9	Washington	6,514,361	24.75%	-1
10	Philadelphia	6,091,123	5.26%	-5
11	Riverside-San Bernardino, Calif.	6,045,701	56.16%	3
12	San Francisco-Oakland	4,901,988	17.90%	0
13	Boston	4,848,156	8.83%	-2
14	Detroit	4,436,940	-1.32%	-4
15	Seattle	4,095,360	28.09%	0
16	Minneapolis-St. Paul	3,883,032	23.99%	0
17	Tampa-St. Petersburg	3,801,743	44.17%	3
18	San Diego	3,540,934	20.78%	-1
19	Orlando	3,289,595	69.96%	9
20	Baltimore	3,067,938	15.90%	-1
21	Denver	2,978,712	26.31%	1
22	Las Vegas	2,952,842	73.39%	10
23	St. Louis	2,945,098	6.20%	-5
24	Portland, Ore.	2,801,944	34.25%	1
25	Austin	2,735,687	86.79%	13
26	Sacramento	2,705,510	33.12%	0
27	Charlotte	2,662,320	75.33%	10
28	San Antonio	2,658,737	41.49%	1
29	Cincinnati	2,404,354	14.43%	-5
30	Kansas City	2,255,680	16.43%	-3
31	Pittsburgh	2,210,061	-6.84%	-10
32	San Jose	2,178,385	24.99%	-2
33	Nashville	2,108,410	45.47%	6
34	Indianapolis	2,101,983	27.93%	0
35	Columbus, Ohio	2,074,112	21.13%	-4
36	Jacksonville	1,972,732	58.10%	6
37	Cleveland	1,927,745	-8.91%	-14
38	Raleigh	1,883,907	97.66%	13
39	Virginia Beach-Norfolk	1,748,189	5.99%	-6
40	Providence	1,672,481	3.88%	-5
41	Milwaukee	1,617,769	5.45%	-5
42	Richmond	1,507,337	28.49%	3
43	Memphis	1,418,875	13.26%	-2
44	Oklahoma City	1,372,903	18.92%	2
45	Louisville	1,362,626	12.87%	-2
46	Tucson	1,330,515	40.42%	6
47	Hartford	1,235,320	4.79%	-3
48	Salt Lake City	1,230,374	17.64%	1
49	Birmingham	1,202,905	10.53%	-1
50	Fresno, Calif.	1,156,154	32.80%	6
51	Bakersfield, Calif.	1,154,400	54.17%	15
52	New Orleans	1,058,909	-19.32%	-12
53	Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.	1,056,780	95.28%	35
54	McAllen-Edinburg, Texas	1,036,769	55.40%	20
55	Buffalo	1,029,606	-9.71%	-8
56	Albuquerque	1,010,089	26.71%	5
57	Rochester, N.Y.	1,009,609	-2.43%	-7

For residential real estate investment, population growth plays significant roll as more population means higher demand for housing (both sales and lease). However, if you speculate solely upon population growth forecast, you would be penalized as seen in today's real estate bubble burst. The property value has done done by 50% in Sunbelt cities in Las Vegas, Phoenix, Florida cities and Central Valley in California.

Therefore, it is critical to monitor other dates like below:

How the Crash Will Reshape America?
Impact of Education Level to Real Estate Price....
Relationship between Household Income and Housing Ownership Cost (Japanese blog)
Rent-to-House Ownership Ratio (Japanese blog)
Restriction in Development (Japanese blog)

Happy Investing!!!!

Quality of Life Ranking by Metropolitan Area.

Here is yet another interesting study on Quality of Living Ranking by Metropolitan Area by David Albouy, University of Michigan Economics professor.

ARE BIG CITIES REALLY BAD PLACES TO LIVE? IMPROVING QUALITY-OF-LIFE　ESTIMATES ACROSS CITIES

Methodology of this study is as follows:

- Heating-Degree Days
- Cooling-Degree Days
- Sunshine, fraction possible
- Precipitation
- Proximity to Coast, salt or fresh water
- Violent Crimes per Capita
- Median Air Quality Index
- Restaurants and Bars per Thousand
- Places Rated Arts & Culture Index
- Residential Land Use Regulatory Index
- Sprawl Index
- Local Expenditures net of Local Taxes
- Federal Spending Differential

Let's review Top 15 metropolitan area (out of 241). Since this study does not evaluate economic related factors, scenic travel and second home destination metros are performing well.

1 Honolulu, HI MSA
2 Santa Barbara--Santa Maria--Lompoc, CA MSA
3 Salinas, CA MSA
4 Santa Fe, NM MSA
5 San Luis Obispo--Atascadero--Paso Robles, CA MSA
6 San Francisco--Oakland--San Jose, CA CMSA
7 non-metropolitan areas, HI
8 San Diego, CA MSA
9 Naples, FL MSA
10 Medford--Ashland, OR MSA
11 non-metropolitan areas, CO
12 Barnstable--Yarmouth, MA MSA
13 Flagstaff, AZ--UT MSA
14 Eugene--Springfield, OR MSA
15 Sarasota--Bradenton, FL MSA

As for the metros with the lowest quality of living, here is the worst 10. Small metros with industry flares did poorly.

232. Lima, OH MSA
234. Jackson, MI MSA
2234. non-metropolitan areas, AL
235. Rockford, IL MSA
236. Decatur, AL MSA
237. McAllen--Edinburg--Mission, TX MSA
238. Gadsden, AL MSA
239. Decatur, IL MSA
240. Beaumont--Port Arthur, TX MSA
241. Kokomo, IN MSA

Below is the ranking for metropolitan areas with 1 million+ population.

- While cost of living is high, California coastal markets such as San Francisco, San Diego and Los Angeles are ranked Top 3. No wonder coastal California is very popular places to live!

- On the contrary, Houston and Dallas are ranked in Worst 10 while Austin Tx does so-so at 12th ranking because of limited sprawl.

- The worst performing metros are those in Rust Belt, primarily because of severely cold weather and lack of culture. As these metros are losing jobs quickly, no wonder population are dwindling.

1 San Francisco--Oakland--San Jose, CA CMSA
2 San Diego, CA MSA
3 Los Angeles--Riverside--Orange County, CA CMSA
4 Seattle--Tacoma--Bremerton, WA CMSA
5 Miami--Fort Lauderdale, FL CMSA
6 Boston--Worcester--Lawrence, MA--NH--ME--CT CMSA
7 Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA
8 Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA
9 New York--Northern New Jersey--Long Island, NY--NJ--CT--PA CMSA
10 West Palm Beach--Boca Raton, FL MSA
11 Norfolk--Virginia Beach--Newport News, VA--NC MSA
12 Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA
13 Sacramento--Yolo, CA CMSA
14 Salt Lake City--Ogden, UT MSA
15 Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA
16 New Orleans, LA MSA
17 Tampa--St. Petersburg--Clearwater, FL MSA
18 Orlando, FL MSA
19 Raleigh--Durham--Chapel Hill, NC MSA
20 Jacksonville, FL MSA
21 Chicago--Gary--Kenosha, IL--IN--WI CMSA
22 Nashville, TN MSA
23 Oklahoma City, OK MSA
24 Providence--Fall River--Warwick, RI--MA MSA
25 Charlotte--Gastonia--Rock Hill, NC--SC MSA
26 Washington--Baltimore, DC--MD--VA--WV CMSA
27 San Antonio, TX MSA
28 Cleveland--Akron, OH CMSA
29 Greensboro--Winston-Salem--High Point, NC MSA
30 Minneapolis--St. Paul, MN--p , WI MSA
31 Las Vegas, NV--AZ MSA
32 Rochester, NY MSA
33 Columbus, OH MSA
34 Kansas City, MO--KS MSA
35 St. Louis, MO--IL MSA
36 Atlanta, GA MSA
37 Dallas--Fort Worth, TX CMSA
38 Philadelphia--Wilmington--Atlantic City, PA--NJ--DE--MD CMSA
39 Detroit--Ann Arbor--Flint, MI CMSA
40 Indianapolis, IN MSA
41 Pittsburgh, PA MSA
42 Cincinnati--Hamilton, OH--KY--IN CMSA
43 Memphis, TN--AR--MS MSA
44 Grand Rapids--Muskegon--Holland, MI MSA
45 Buffalo--Niagara Falls, NY g , MSA
46 Houston--Galveston--Brazoria, TX CMSA

I've bloged a couple of posting on decline of California, rise of Texas and their rivalry. By looking at this kind of data, it is evident that California's anti-growth policy is contributing to keeping coastal area very attractive place to live. As for the Texas, free-to-develop culture made Houston and Dalls one of the most ugly places to live. I guess California and Texas should really learn from each other!

Happy Investing!!!!

California Vs Texas - America's Future

Very interesting cover article from Economist.

I believe recent budget and economic crisis in California really highlighted California's issues such as dysfunctional government, too much restriction, too high tax and too much political power of state employees.

On the contrary, Texas get lots of accolade as the state for business, future and jobs.

As this article point out, California and Texas should learn from each other!

The truth is that both states could learn from each other. Texas still lacks California’s great universities and lags in terms of culture. California could adopt not just Texas’s leaner state, but also its more bipartisan approach to politics and its more welcoming attitude towards Mexico. There is no perfect model of government: it is America’s genius to have 50 public-policy laboratories competing to find out what works best—just as it is the relentless competition of clever new firms from Portland to Pittsburgh that will pull the country out of its current gloom. But, to give Texas some credit and serve as a warning to Mr Schwarzenegger’s heir, at this moment America’s two most futuristic states look a lot more like equals than ever before.

For Californian, it is time to stand and demand less taxing and more business friendly states to reinvent California.

Happy Investing!!!!