Saturday 4 July 2009

Analysis of Unemployment Rate by Metropolitan Area

Since unemployment rate in US is going up and up and reached 9.4%, the worst rate since 1983. Since unemployment rate is is "lagging indicator," it is going to get worse before it gets better. I see it going to up to 11 - 12% toward the end of 2009.

Having said that, US is very diverse country. Unemployment situation is differ dramatically by the metropolitan area. In addition, unemployment is now key reason for real estate value as it leads to foreclosure or distressed sales. It is very important to understand by metro unemployment situation in order to understand health of your real estate markets.

Below is unemployment data of Top 50 US metropolitan areas and its increase over past 12 month.

下記は、US Censusの2009年5月のアメリカの50大都市圏での失業率と過去一年間の増加ポイントです。

- 5 out of worst 10 metros are in California. This is reflection of California's real estate dependent economy and severe slow down of economy after bubble burst. No wonder state income is 30% below its budget.

- Metros with worst increase in unemployment rate are; 1. Detroit +6.6 (massive lay off in auto industory); 2. Riverside-San Bernardino CA +5.6 (too much dependence in contruction and real estate); 3. Charlotte NC +6.2 (Corrupse of Wachovia); 4. Providence RI +5.0; 5 (slump in manufacturing). Portland OR +6.7(http://bit.ly/9T06M); 6. Atlanta GA +5.1; 7. San Jose CA +5.7; 8. Las Vegas NV +5.4; 9. Sacramento CA +4.8; 10. Los Angeles CA +4.5

- Metros with low unemployment rate are Salt Lake City, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, New Orleans, Austin, Washington DC, Houston, Virginia Beach, Dallas & Pittsburgh. 4 out of 10 are located in Texas. It prove the era of Texas.

Rank Metropolitan Stastical Area Unemployment Increase
1 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI MSA 14.9% 6.6
2 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA 13.0% 5.6
3 Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC MSA 12.0% 6.2
4 Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA MSA 12.0% 5.0
5 Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA MSA 11.6% 6.7
6 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA MSA 11.3% 5.1
7 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA MSA 11.2% 5.7
8 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV MSA 11.1% 5.4
9 Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA MSA 11.1% 4.8
10 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA MSA 10.7% 4.5
11 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 10.6% 4.7
12 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI MSA 10.5% 4.4
13 Orlando-Kissimmee, FL MSA 10.2% 5.0
14 Louisville-Jefferson County, KY-IN MSA 10.2% 4.5
15 Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH MSA 10.0% 3.5
16 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA MSA 9.7% 4.6
17 Jacksonville, FL MSA 9.7% 4.5
18 Memphis, TN-MS-AR MSA 9.7% 3.3
19 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL MSA 9.4% 4.2
20 Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN MSA 9.4% 4.0
21 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA 9.4% 4.0
22 Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN MSA 9.3% 4.1
23 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI MSA 9.0% 4.7
24 St. Louis, MO-IL MSA 9.0% 3.1
25 Raleigh-Cary, NC MSA 8.9% 4.3
26 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA 8.8% 4.3
27 Birmingham-Hoover, AL MSA 8.7% 4.9
28 Kansas City, MO-KS MSA 8.6% 3.3
29 Indianapolis-Carmel, IN MSA 8.5% 3.9
30 Columbus, OH MSA 8.3% 3.2
31 Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY MSA 8.3% 2.6
32 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA MSA 8.2% 3.4
33 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA 8.2% 3.3
34 Richmond, VA MSA 8.1% 4.2
35 Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT MSA 7.9% 2.5
36 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA 7.8% 3.1
37 Baltimore-Towson, MD MSA 7.6% 3.5
38 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH MSA 7.5% 3.0
39 Denver-Aurora, CO MSA 7.5% 3.0
40 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA 7.3% 3.1
41 Pittsburgh, PA MSA 7.3% 2.6
42 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA 7.1% 2.5
43 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC MSA 7.0% 3.2
44 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX MSA 6.9% 2.5
45 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA 6.2% 2.7
46 Austin-Round Rock, TX MSA 6.1% 2.2
47 New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA MSA 6.0% 2.6
48 San Antonio, TX MSA 5.8% 1.7
49 Oklahoma City, OK MSA 5.7% 2.1
50 Salt Lake City, UT MSA 5.2% 2.2

This is ranking of Top 50 largest metros in US. If you are interested in data on all US metros, please check out Wall Street Journal article.

Happy Investing!!!

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