Friday, 13 November 2009

Home Price Forecast to 2014 by Moody's Economy.com

Moody's Economy.com has introduced housing price forecast for 1 year (2010), 3 years (2012) and 5 years (2014).

Forbes.com http://bit.ly/zz76M

Metropolitan Area 1 Year, 09 3 Year, 09-12 5 Year, 09-14
San Antonio, Texas 0.49% -1.63% -0.57%
Austin, Texas 0.29% -1.54% -1.01%
Dallas, Texas -0.11% 0.50% 2.81%
Indianapolis, Ind. -0.53% 2.25% 8%
Kansas City, Mo. -1.20% 0.41% 5.53%
Pittsburgh, Pa. -1.59% 8.47% 22.10%
Houston, Texas -2.10% 0.47% 2.40%
St. Louis, Mo. -3.27% 0.61% 5.20%
Columbus, Ohio -5.89% 4.62% 16.11%
Virginia Beach, Va. -6.92% -10.75% -6.25%
Nashville, Tenn. -7.38% -1.25% 3.20%
Milwaukee, Wis. -7.56% -1.94% 0.99%
Charlotte, N.C. -8.15% 3.54% 12.20%
Denver, Colo. -8.69% -1.05% 11.20%
Cincinnati, Ohio -9.31% 3.98% 16.10%
Philadelphia, Pa. -9.42% 1.61% 13.73%
Cleveland, Ohio -9.44% 4.73% 18.67%
Boston, Ma. -9.75% 4.48% 20.44%
Providence, R.I. -12.57% 0.43% 11.71%
Portland, Ore. -13% 3.10% 13.69%
New York NY -13.08% -11.86% 4.29%
Baltimore, Md. -13.32% -3.33% 9.22%
Seattle, Wash. -14.86% 15.48% 30.98%
Atlanta, Ga. -14.91% 0.98% 11.35%
Chicago IL -16.31% 1.49% 14%
Washington, D.C. -17.05% -3.77% 9.98%
Jacksonville, Fla. -18.51% -15.24% -1.01%
Detroit, Mich. -19.35% 3.94% 19.96%
San Diego, Calif. -19.37% 12.80% 25.41%
Los Angeles, Calif. -21.22% 2.94% 12.36%
Sacramento, Calif. -21.43% 6.79% 12.87%
Minneapolis, Minn. -23.01% 1.76% 16.05%
San Francisco, Calif. -23.42% 12.12% 26.51%
Tampa, Fla. -24.71% -14.69% 6.66%
San Jose, Calif. -25.14% 8.41% 23.04%
Riverside, Calif. -28.12% -0.45% 11.07%
Orlando, Fla. -29.84% -22.39% -3.58%
Miami, Fla. -30.35% -23% -2.93%
Las Vegas, Nev. -31.61% -19.53% 3.53%
Phoenix, Ariz. -34.72% -17.96% 7.44%

It is interesting to note that Economy.com forecast 10%+ decline toward 2010. Considering there so many home owners with negative equity and unemployment is still increasing, I tend to agree with their forecast toward 2010.

It is also interesting to note that:

- In former bubble areas such as Phoenix, Las Vegas and Florida cities, 30%+ home owners carry negative equity and economy is quite bad. Therefore home price will continue to decline toward 2012 but it will NOT rebound toward 2014.

- BUT in major job centers such as Seattle, San Francisco, San Jose, San Diego and Boston, there are solid job market and high-income consumers. Therefore, Economy.com forecast 20-30% home price appreciation toward 2014.

Anyhow, I recommend that you treat this kind of data as "reference only" ince real estate markets depends on locations, school district, etc...

Happy Investing!!!!

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