Tuesday, 25 January 2011

Will any of the fifty largest cities in 2050 world be located in the USA or Europe?

Please state why you believe either way.

Right now, if I counted correctly, there are ten European and US cities in the Top 50 (eleven with Moscow). With the continuing growth of Asian and African cities, will this still be the case in fourty years?

Firstly, let's take a look at world population growth forecast from 2010 Vs. 2030 Vs. 2050. You can see that growth in absolute number is coming from Asia but the fastest growing region is Africa.

World population - Wikipedia http://bit.ly/hmi6ns

This is Demographia World Urban Areas &Population Projection for 2030 Vs 2009. http://www.demographia.com/db-wo...  

You can see that growth rate for mega cities in African (100%+ growth) Asian (50%+ growth) emerging market is very high while the growth for North American and European cities is very slow (except for US Sunbelt cities such as Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and Atlanta). 

From US and Europe, 7 cities (NY, London, Paris, LA, Dallas, Atlanta and Moscow) will be in Top 50 by 2030.  

So, in 2050, NY and LA will stay as Top 50 metro. Moscow is very likely as well. However London and Paris is probably out of Top 50 metro ranking. Dallas, Atlanta and Houston may make Top 50 list IF they continue to grow in the same pace as they would between 2010 and 2030.

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