Era of Texas – End of California……

Here is great article about emergence of Texas from newgeography.com. Since this is pretty much explain why I (San Francisco resident) invest in Austin Tx, I would like to introduce as follows:

America's Four Great Growth Waves and the World Cities They Produced

by Tory Gattis 04/14/2009

http://www.newgeography.com/content/00748-americas-four-great-growth-waves-and-world-cities-they-produced

• There have been four great growth waves in American history. In each case, there was an attractive new frontier, which not only drew migrating waves of people seeking new opportunity, but also developed large new bases of industry, wealth, and power. These waves have also created top-tier world cities in their wake. The first three of these waves were:
• The Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington DC corridor was America's original land of opportunity, industry, wealth, and power. New York was the big winner, and DC and Boston still do quite well.
• The rise of the agricultural and industrial Midwest, including Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and St. Louis. The fall here has been a hard one as manufacturing moved abroad, but Chicago still stands as a world-class city produced during the region's heyday.
• The great westward migration, mostly focused on California, but with ancillary growth in adjacent and west coast states. This migration started well before World War 2, but really took off after the war, and produced two top-tier mega-metros – Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area - and several successful second-tiers like Seattle, San Diego, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
• These waves are not clearly distinct, but overlap each other. As one region matures and starts to level off, the next region starts its growth wave. And that's the situation now as California shows clear signs of having peaked: gigantic tech and housing crashes plus economic and domestic outmigration as tax, cost-of-living, housing, and regulatory burdens rise and a dysfunctional government teeters towards financial collapse.
• The fourth wave is increasingly clear and follows the same California model of a single focus mega-state and an ancillary region: Texas and the new South.
• · The growth wave really covers much of the South, but Texas is the 800lb gorilla vs. states like Georgia and North Carolina, just as California dominates over Washington, Nevada, and Arizona.
• Texas even looms over Florida, which certainly has experienced incredible population growth to become the fourth-largest state, but has had considerably less success with building industry, wealth, and power. Florida’s wealth – like that of Arizona – comes in part from people who built wealth elsewhere but moved or bought a second home there. Neither place is home to many Fortune 500 headquarters, an area where Texas has excelled.
• California had its agriculture and oil barons before WW2, but the real story there was the post-war rise of the entertainment, defense, aerospace, biotech, trade and technology industries. In a similar way, Texas’ oil tycoons are just the tip of the coming surge of wealth and power in industries such as technology, health care, biotech, defense, trade, transportation, aerospace, finance, telecom, and alternative energy in addition to traditional oil and gas (in fact, Texas is the #1 wind power state).
• · The great cities emerging from this new wave are Atlanta, Dallas-Ft.Worth, and Houston. They dominate the census growth stats (Houston story), and all indications are that Houston will pass Philadelphia in the 2010 census to join Dallas-Ft.Worth in the top 5 metros along with New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago. DFW and Houston are even approaching the combined San Francisco Bay Area population of 6.1 million, and Texas passed California and New York for the #1 ranking in the Fortune 500 HQ rankings last year.
• The DFW-Austin-San Antonio-Houston Texas Triangle has the population of 18 million and fastest growing economic corridor in USA.
• 
  

While I really like California, I tend to agree that Era of California is over. It is quite evident from current economic slump, fiscal budget mess and increasing tax and cost of business.

Happy Investing in Texas and take advantage of this 4^th wave!!!!!!

Memo - Washington DC is awash with money.

Wall Street Journal's brief report about booming Washington DC economy. Nice for DC while rest of states are suffering with budget crisis!!

Anyway -- it is good case study that "capital" cities are recession proofed!

Impact of Education Level to Real Estate Price....

As recession get worse, even college graduates are having tough time finding job, especially ones that they want. Under these circumstance, they may question the value of college degree. Here is interesting statistics!

- The unemployment rate for workers over 25 years old who haven't gone beyond high school rose to 10% in May, nearly doubling from 5.2%.

- Among workers who haven't completed high school, the unemployment rate rose to 15.5%, compared with 8.4% last year.

- By contrast, the jobless rate among those with four-year college degrees was 4.8%, up considerably from 2.3% a year ago, but well below the rate for people with less education.

- The unemployment rate in April among four-year college graduates between 20 and 24 years old was 6.1%; among those the same age with only high-school diplomas, it was 19.6%.

I guess college degree does not guarantee your economic success. But, without it, it will totally limit your career options.

As you seen from recent mess on US auto industry, labor union are under severe pressure in terms of high salary and benefits. This pretty much symbolize the end of American Dream --- “upon high school graduation, get manufacturing jobs and enjoy middle class life for the rest of one’s life”. In fact, in this recession, manufacturing factor is one of the most severely hit area. As US economy moves toward more information and creative based, I do not see bright future in manufacturing jobs in US. This indicate that expanding income inequities based on education level.

Anyway, let’s go back to real estate. I believe there are strong correlation on residents’ education level and real estate stability. Below is the ranking of most educated metropolitan area in USA. You can see that top ranked cities are known for high real estate price. This has to do with strong economy and higher income.

MSA College Graduate Ratio Median Household Income
1. Seattle, WA52.7 $49,297
2. San Francisco, CA 50.1 $57,496
3. Raleigh, NC 50.1 $48,131
4. Washington, DC 45.3 $47,221
5. Austin, TX 44.1 $43,731
6. Minneapolis, MN 43.2 $41,829
7. Atlanta, GA 42.4 $39,752
8. Boston, MA 40.9 $42,562
9. San Diego, CA 40.4 $55,637
10. Lexington-Fayette, KY 39.5 $42,442
11. Denver, CO 39 $42,370
12. Charlotte, NC 38.8 $47,131
13. Portland, OR 38.8 $42,287
14. St. Paul, MN 36.5 $44,103
15. San Jose, CA 36.1 $70,921
16. Colorado Springs, CO 34.9 $47,854
17. Honolulu, HI 34.7 $50,793
18. Oakland, CA 33.8 $44,124
19. Pittsburgh, PA 32.3 $30,278
20. New York, NY 32.2 $43,434
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

My real estate investment is concentrated in good neighborhood in Austin, San Francisco and Manhattan (40%+ residents in Manhattan has master degree or higher!). Fortunately, real estate market is quite stable in these markets and unemployment is not as bad as rest of America.

One of the reason I have not-so-positive point of view in Las Vegas real estate is that its low education level. Only 20.4% of Las Vegas residents have college degree or higher. With this fact, you can easily understand why unemployment rate in Las Vegas has shot up to 10.4% in 12 month period. For same reasons, I am not bullish on real estate market in Inland California. Richard Florida has pointed out importance of educated workforce to be "winning cities".

As you observed that real estate bubble burst is most severe in low education neighborhood (= subprime loan + high unemployment) while, at “good” neighborhood with high-education residents, real estate price is tend to be stable. As income inequities by education level will continue to spreads in USA, I think it is more important that you focus more on good neighborhood where those with high education choose to live.

Happy Investing!!!!!

Liveability Ranking by Economist.com

Economist Intelligence Unit has annouced 2009 Livability Ranking. Ranking is based on factors such as stability; healthcare; culture and environment; education; and infrastructure.

Cities that score best tend to be mid-sized, in developed countries with a low population density, benefiting from cultural or recreational availability but with lower crime levels or infrastructure problems that can be caused by large populations.

At the other end of the ranking, most of the poorest-performing locations are in Africa or Asia, where civil instability and poor infrastructure present significant challenges (the survey does not include locations such as Afghanistan or Iraq). The prospect of violence, whether through domestic protests, civil war or the threat of foreign incursion, plays a significant role in the poorest-performing cities. This can exacerbate the impact of instability on other key liveability categories, such as infrastructure, healthcare indicators or the availability (or freedom) of certain activities.

Happy investing!!!

Unemployment rate in Austin Tx has declined 3 month in row.

Unemployment in Austin Tax has been declining over last 3 month, according to the news from Austin American Statesman.

- Employment has increased by 0.4% and added 3,480 jobs compared to March 2008.
- Unemployment rate has decreased to 5.8%.
- Austin is ONLY large metro with job growth.
- Leisure & Hospitality and professional service category is leading job growth while manufacturing job has decreased by 9.4%.

3 month consecutive improvement mean Austin area's economy has clearly bottomed. As Austin is named "best city for job growth", I see continuous improvement for Austin's job markets.

Happy Investing in AUSTIN!!!!

Summer Event in San Francisco

June

Opera at the Ballpark - simulcast June 5^th, 8pm [Fri] – AT&T Ballpark

Union Street Fair June 6^th/7^th, 10 am – 6 pm [Sat/Sun] - Union Street

Dolores Park Movie – Movie TBD June 11^th, 9:00pm [Thur] – Dolores Park – 20^th and Dolores

Realistic Orchestra – Yerba Buena June 13^th, 1-2:30pm [Sat] – Yerba Buena Gardens Festival

North Beach Festival June 13^th/14^th, 10am – 6pm [Sat/Sun} - Grant & Vallejo

Haight Street Fair June 14^th, 11am – 5pm [Sun] - Haight St.

Maestros of the Joropo – Yerba Buena June 20^th, 1-2:30pm [Sat] – Yerba Buena Gardens Festival

Film in the Park – Goldfinger June 20^th, 8pm [Sat] – Dolores Park – 20^th and Dolores

Stern Grove – Roberta Flack June 21^st, 2:00pm [Sun] – 19^th Ave and Sloat

US Air Guitar Championships Bay Area June 26^th/27^th [Fri/Sat] – The Independent

Stern Grove – Les Nubians June 28^th, 2:00pm [Sun] – 19^th Ave and Sloat

July

4th of July July 4^th – [Sat]

Fillmore Street Jazz Festival July 4^th/5^th – 10am – 6pm [Sat/Sun] - Fillmore & Jackson

Stern Grove – San Francisco Symphony July 5^th, 2:00pm [Sun] – 19^th Ave and Sloat

Film in the Park – Manhattan July 11^th, 8pm [Sat] – Dolores Park

Stern Grove – Joan Baez July 12^th, 2:00pm [Sun] – 19^th Ave and Sloat

Bastille Day July 14^th, [Tues] – various locations

KulArts’ Ibig – Yerba Buena July 18^th, 1-2:30pm [Sat] – Yerba Buena Gardens Festival

Stern Grove – Sergent Garcia July 19^th, 2:00pm [Sun] – 19^th Ave and Sloat

North Beach Jazz Festival July 20^th – 26^th, [Mon – Sun] - North Beach

Stern Grove – The Lyrics Born Revue July 26^th, 2:00pm [Sun] – 19^th Ave and Sloat

August

Film in the Park – Pretty in Pink August 1^st, 8pm [Sat] – Dolores Park – 20^th and Dolores

Afro Solo’s Jazz – Yerba Buena August 1^st, 1-4pm [Sat] – Yerba Buena Gardens Festival

Aloha Festival August 1^st/2^nd, 10am-5pm [Sat/Sun] – Presidio Main Post, Parade Grounds

Stern Grove – Kailish Kher’s Kailasa August 2^nd, 2:00pm [Sun] – 19^th Ave and Sloat

Pisthan – Yerba Buena August 8^th, 11am-4pm [Sat] – Yerba Buena Gardens Festival

Nohonmachi Street Fair August 8^th/9^th [Sat/Sun] – Japantown

Stern Grove – Toto La Momposina August 9^th, 2:00pm [Sun] – 19^th Ave and Sloat

Dolores Park Movie – Movie TBD August 13^th, 9:00pm [Thur] – Dolores Park – 20^th and Dolores

AVP – Volleyball Tournament August 14^th/15^th/16^th, Time TBD [Fri/Sat/Sun] – Pier 30/32

Rio de Janeiro, Jazz – Yerba Buena August 15^th, 1-3pm [Sat] – Yerba Buena Gardens Festival

Stern Grove – San Francisco Ballet August 16^th, 2:00pm [Sun] – 19^th Ave and Sloat

Film in the Park – On the Waterfront August 22^nd, 8pm [Sat] – Union Square

Stern Grove – San Francisco Opera August 23^rd, 2:00pm [Sun] – 19^th Ave and Sloat

Outside Lands Music Festival August 28^th/29^th/30^th [Fri – Sun] – Golden Gate Park

Marcus Shelby Orchestra – Yerba Buena August 29^th, 1-2:30pm [Sat] – Yerba Buena Gardens Festival

Shakespeare in the Park Various dates - The Presidio's Main Post Parade Ground Lawn

September

Shakespeare in the Park Various dates - The Presidio's Main Post Parade Ground Lawn

Gamelan Sekar Jaya – Yerba Buena Sept 5^th, 1-3pm [Sat] – Yerba Buena Gardens Festival

Dolores Park Movie – Movie TBD Sept 10^th, 9:00 pm [Thur] – Dolores Park – 20^th and Dolores

Power to the Peaceful Festival Sept 12^th, 9am – 5 pm [Sat] – location TBD

Yosvany Terry – Yerba Buena Sept 12^th, 1-3pm [Sat] – Yerba Buena Gardens Festival

Opera in the Park Sept 13^th, 1:30 – 4 pm [Sun] – Sharon Meadows

Queens of New Orleans – Yerba Buena Sept 19^th, 1-3pm [Sat] – Yerba Buena Gardens Festival

Film in the Park – The Dark Knight Sept 19^th, 8pm [Sat] – Dolores Park – 20^th and Dolores

Treasure Island Music Festival Sept 17^th/18^th [Sat/Sun] – Treasure Island

Comedy Day Sept 20^th, Noon – 5pm [Sun] – Sharon Meadow, GG Park

Now and Zen Festival TBD

Love Parade TBD

Love Fest TBD

Linda Tillery – Yerba Buena Sept 26^th, 1-3pm [Sat] – Yerba Buena Gardens Festival

Folsom Street Fair Sept 27^th, 11 am–6pm [Sun] – Folsom Str between 7^th & 12^th

October

Film in the Fog – TBD October TBD, 7:00 pm [Sat] – Presidio - lawn of the Main Post

Oktoberfest October 2^nd - 4^th, various times [Thur–Sun] - Ft. Mason

Film in the Park – Slumdog Millionaire October 3^rd, 8pm [Sat] – Washington Square Park

Jerry Gonzalez – Yerba Buena October 4^th, 12:30-3:30pm [Sat] – Yerba Buena Gardens Festival

Castro Street Fair October 4^th, 11:00am – 6:00pm [Sun]

Fleet Week October 8^th – 13^th, [Thur – Sun]

Dolores Park Movie – Movie TBD October 8^th, 8:00pm [Thur] – Dolores Park – 20^th and Dolores

Family Festival – Yerba Buena October 17^th, noon-3pm [Sat] – Yerba Buena Gardens Festival

Bernal Heights Fiesta on the Hill October 18^th, 11:00am – 6:00pm [Sun]

Beats for Boobs – Breast Cancer Event October 22^nd, TBD [Thur] – 111 Minna

Halloween Costume Walk – Yerba Buena October 31^st noon-2pm [Sat] – Yerba Buena Gardens Festival