As unemployment in US is getting worse every month, many economists predict that it will eventually exceed 10%. If you include under-employed workers and those who quite the job search, it is already exceeding 15%! However, as US economy is very diverse, each cities have different employment situations.
Here is the data about "Where are best cities for job growth?", compiled by www.newgeography.com, excellent website with provocative thoughts on city planning.
They indexed 333 metropolitan area and provided ranking. Their methodology is listed below --- those metros that performed well in the past tend to have better ranking.
The index is calculated from a normalized, weighted summary of: 1) recent growth trend: the current and prior year's employment growth rates, with the current year emphasized (two points); 2) mid-term growth: the average annual 2003-2008 growth rate (two points); 3) long-term trend: the sum of the 2003-2008 and 1998-2002 employment growth rates multiplied by the ratio of the 1998-2002 growth rate over the 2003-2008 growth rate (two points); and 4) current year growth (one point).Here is the ranking among large metropolitan areas:
- Austin Tx, my top investment locatoin, is No.1 in the ranking.
- Other Texas metros are ranked 2, 3, 4 & 5 --- I guess "Era of Texas" is about to begin!
- Seattle and Portland have been ranked among Top 10 but I believe this is more to do with their good job related performance in the past. In fact, unemployment of Portland and Seattle has gone up to 12.1% and 8.8% respectively, almost doubled from year earlier. Since Seattle and Portalnd economy is primarily driven by inflow of California resident and business, they will not be such great place for jobs for next 1 year or so.
- California metros such as Los Angeles-Long Beach、Riverside-San Bernardino、Sacramento、Oakland、Orange County are ranked among worst 10. This is one of the reason why I think Southern and Inland California has long way to hit bottom in real estate price.
- Other worst markets are Rust Belt cities in Ohio and Michigan (Detroit is worst) and bubble-popped Florida metros.
|Rank||Metropolita Area||2009 INDEX|
|1||Austin-Round Rock, TX||87.7|
|2||Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX||85.4|
|3||San Antonio, TX||82.0|
|4||Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Division||78.3|
|5||Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX Metropolitan Division||78.0|
|6||Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA Metropolitan Division||77.2|
|7||Salt Lake City, UT||76.5|
|9||Oklahoma City, OK||72.9|
|11||Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA||66.8|
|12||Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Division||66.6|
|13||Northern Virginia, VA||65.0|
|14||New York City, NY||62.3|
|16||Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA NECTA Division||56.1|
|20||San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA||53.6|
|22||Las Vegas-Paradise, NV||52.5|
|23||San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA Metropolitan Division||51.6|
|24||Bethesda-Frederick-Rockville, MD Metropolitan Division||51.5|
|27||Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC||48.5|
|28||Kansas City, MO||48.3|
|30||Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY||47.1|
|31||Philadelphia City, PA||46.6|
|33||St. Louis, MO-IL||46.3|
|34||Nassau-Suffolk, NY Metropolitan Division||46.2|
|36||Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT NECTA||44.2|
|37||Louisville-Jefferson County, KY-IN||42.7|
|39||San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA||42.4|
|40||Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL Metropolitan Division||41.6|
|41||Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA||41.6|
|45||New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA||39.5|
|47||Newark-Union, NJ-PA Metropolitan Division||38.5|
|48||Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI||38.3|
|50||Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL Metropolitan Division||37.2|
|51||Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI||37.0|
|52||Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL Metropolitan Division||37.0|
|54||Edison-New Brunswick, NJ Metropolitan Division||34.4|
|55||Camden, NJ Metropolitan Division||32.9|
|56||Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA Metropolitan Division||32.6|
|57||Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA||31.5|
|58||Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL||31.2|
|59||Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI Metropolitan Division||29.4|
|61||West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL Metropolitan Division||28.2|
|62||Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA Metropolitan Division||27.1|
|63||Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA Metropolitan Division||26.2|
|65||Providence-Fall River-Warwick, RI-MA NECTA||21.7|
|66||Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Division||8.9|
Job is one of the key data to determine the health of real estate markets. Good job growth leads to increased population -> increased demand on rental and purchase properties -> increased rent and sales price. And umemployment leads to rise of those who can not pay rent or mortgage -> increased evictions and foreclosure -> depressed rent and purchase price. It is critical to monitor these data to forecast local real estate market!