- Worst markets for decline are located in bubble metros such as Florida cities, Las Vegas and Phoenix. In worst 10 markets, real estate markets do not hit bottom until end of 2010 or in 2011. In addition to the real estate bubble, these metros are hit hard by recession. This forecast show recovery of real estate market depends on the economy.
- I was surprised to see that Coastal California metros (San Francisco, San Jose, San Diego & Santa Ana) real estate market hit bottom in Q4 2009. These markets real estate price has declined dramatically already. But economy is not as bad as above-mentioned bubble area. In addition, in Coastal California metro, supply is quite limited. These factors contribute to hitting bottom earlier than bubble market. However, at inland California metro (Riveriside, Stockton, etc...), due to massive over-building and economic slump, it takes longer to hit the bottom.
- In the metros that are ranked below 70th (out of 100 metros), they have not experienced real estate bubble and their economy is fairly stable. Therefore real estate market has pretty much bottomed already. Once local buyers feel confident on economy, I believe recovery takes place sooner.
| Rank | Location | through 03/ 10 | Bottom |
| 1 | Miami, FL | -27.80% | 2011:Q2 |
| 2 | Sarasota, FL | -25.50% | 2010:Q4 |
| 3 | Orlando, FL | -24.50% | 2011:Q2 |
| 4 | Fort Lauderdale, FL | -24.40% | 2011:Q2 |
| 5 | Phoenix, AZ | -19.70% | 2010:Q3 |
| 6 | Tampa, FL | -19.10% | 2011:Q1 |
| 7 | West Palm Beach, FL | -18.70% | 2011:Q1 |
| 8 | Jacksonville, FL | -17.20% | 2011:Q2 |
| 9 | Las Vegas, NV | -17.00% | 2010:Q3 |
| 10 | New York, NY | -15.30% | 2011:Q1 |
| 11 | Los Angeles, CA | -15.30% | 2010:Q3 |
| 12 | Riverside, CA | -15.10% | 2010:Q2 |
| 13 | Virginia Beach, VA | -14.90% | 2011:Q1 |
| 14 | Nassau/Suffolk, NY | -14.90% | 2011:Q2 |
| 15 | Stockton, CA | -14.50% | 2010:Q1 |
| 16 | Wilmington, DE | -14.10% | 2011:Q1 |
| 17 | Tucson, AZ | -13.50% | 2011:Q1 |
| 18 | Honolulu, HI | -13.40% | 2010:Q2 |
| 19 | Camden, NJ | -13.30% | 2010:Q3 |
| 20 | Providence, RI | -13.20% | 2011:Q1 |
| 21 | Edison, NJ | -11.90% | 2011:Q1 |
| 22 | Oakland, CA | -11.70% | 2009:Q4 |
| 23 | Baltimore, MD | -11.30% | 2011:Q1 |
| 24 | Salt Lake City, UT | -11.30% | 2010:Q3 |
| 25 | Bethesda, MD | -11.10% | 2010:Q2 |
| 26 | Philadelphia, PA | -10.90% | 2010:Q3 |
| 27 | Newark, NJ | -10.40% | 2010:Q3 |
| 28 | Portland, OR | -10.20% | 2010:Q3 |
| 29 | Stamford, CT | -10.10% | 2010:Q2 |
| 30 | Oxnard, CA | -10.00% | 2009:Q4 |
| 31 | San Francisco, CA | -10.00% | 2009:Q4 |
| 32 | San Diego, CA | -9.90% | 2009:Q4 |
| 33 | Washington, DC | -9.70% | 2010:Q2 |
| 34 | New Haven, CT | -9.60% | 2010:Q3 |
| 35 | Santa Ana, CA | -9.60% | 2009:Q4 |
| 36 | Fresno, CA | -7.90% | 2009:Q4 |
| 37 | Denver, CO | -7.80% | 2010:Q3 |
| 38 | Bakersfield, CA | -7.60% | 2009:Q4 |
| 39 | Hartford, CT | -7.60% | 2010:Q2 |
| 40 | Sacramento, CA | -7.50% | 2009:Q4 |
| 41 | Springfield, MA | -7.50% | 2010:Q3 |
| 42 | Poughkeepsie1, NY | -7.30% | 2010:Q2 |
| 43 | Albuquerque, NM | -7.20% | 2010:Q3 |
| 44 | Peabody, MA | -6.90% | 2010:Q3 |
| 45 | Boston, MA | -6.80% | 2010:Q3 |
| 46 | Worcester, MA | -5.90% | 2010:Q2 |
| 47 | Richmond, VA | -4.80% | 2010:Q3 |
| 48 | Seattle, WA | -4.80% | 2009:Q4 |
| 49 | San Jose, CA | -4.70% | 2009:Q3 |
| 50 | Allentown, PA | -4.60% | 2010:Q2 |
| 51 | Detroit, MI | -4.10% | 2010:Q2 |
| 52 | New Orleans, LA | -3.60% | 2011:Q3 |
| 53 | Minneapolis, MN | -3.50% | 2010:Q2 |
| 54 | Cambridge, MA | -3.30% | 2010:Q1 |
| 55 | Warren, MI | -3.20% | 2010:Q2 |
| 56 | Chicago, IL | -2.70% | 2010:Q2 |
| 57 | Atlanta, GA | -2.40% | 2010:Q1 |
| 58 | Milwaukee, WI | -2.10% | 2010:Q2 |
| 59 | Knoxville, TN | -2.00% | 2010:Q2 |
| 60 | Tacoma, WA | -2.00% | 2009:Q4 |
| 61 | Colorado Springs, CO | -1.90% | 2009:Q4 |
| 62 | Kansas City, MO | -1.80% | 2010:Q1 |
| 63 | Lake County, IL | -1.60% | 2010:Q1 |
| 64 | Charlotte, NC | -1.50% | 2010:Q2 |
| 65 | Nashville, TN | -1.40% | 2010:Q2 |
| 66 | Cincinnati, OH | -1.40% | 2010:Q1 |
| 67 | St. Louis, MO | -1.20% | 2010:Q1 |
| 68 | Oklahoma City, OK | -1.20% | 2010:Q2 |
| 69 | Grand Rapids, MI | -1.20% | 2009:Q4 |
| 70 | Gary, IN | -1.20% | 2009:Q4 |
| 71 | San Antonio, TX | -1.20% | 2010:Q2 |
| 72 | Baton Rouge, LA | -1.20% | 2010:Q2 |
| 73 | El Paso, TX | -1.10% | 2010:Q1 |
| 74 | Austin, TX | -0.80% | 2009:Q4 |
| 75 | Tulsa, OK | -0.80% | 2010:Q1 |
| 76 | Cleveland, OH | -0.70% | 2009:Q4 |
| 77 | Akron, OH | -0.70% | 2010:Q1 |
| 78 | Columbus, OH | -0.70% | 2009:Q4 |
| 79 | Dallas, TX | -0.60% | 2009:Q4 |
| 80 | Fort Worth, TX | -0.50% | 2009:Q4 |
| 81 | Louisville, KY | -0.40% | 2008:Q2 |
| 82 | Dayton, OH | -0.40% | 2009:Q4 |
| 83 | Memphis, TN | -0.30% | 2009:Q3 |
| 84 | McAllen, TX | -0.30% | 2009:Q3 |
| 85 | Little Rock, AR | -0.20% | 2009:Q4 |
| 86 | Indianapolis, IN | -0.20% | 2009:Q3 |
| 87 | Greenville, SC | -0.20% | 2009:Q2 |
| 88 | Omaha, NE | -0.10% | 2009:Q2 |
| 89 | Charleston, SC | -0.10% | 2009:Q3 |
| 90 | Albany, NY | -0.10% | 2009:Q3 |
| 91 | Houston, TX | -0.10% | 2009:Q4 |
| 92 | Raleigh, NC | 0.00% | 2009:Q3 |
| 93 | Birmingham, AL | 0.20% | 2009:Q2 |
| 94 | Greensboro, NC | 0.30% | 2009:Q2 |
| 95 | Toledo, OH | 0.50% | 2009:Q1 |
| 96 | Columbia, SC | 0.60% | 2009:Q3 |
| 97 | Buffalo, NY | 0.60% | NA |
| 98 | Rochester, NY | 0.70% | NA |
| 99 | Pittsburgh, PA | 0.80% | NA |
| 100 | Syracuse, NY | 1.00% | NA |
Since they are multiple data source on this type of forecast, it is best to cross-reference them and make your decisions!
When does US Real Estate Hit the Bottom? - 2009 Real Estate Forecast
Ranking of Metro where Real Estate Price is Stable. - 2009 Real Estate Forecast
2009 Real Estate Market Outlook by Fortune Magazine
Happy Investing!!!!
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