This is Fortune Magazine's forecast on 2009 real estate by metropolitan area. Fortune has come up with this figure with Moody's Economy.com. http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0812/gallery.worst_markets.fortune/
| Rank | Metro | 2009 | 2010 |
| 1 | McAllen-Mission TX | 2.8% | 8.0% |
| 2 | New Orleans LA | 0.6% | 4.2% |
| 3 | Fort Worth-Arlington TX | -0.4% | 3.1% |
| 4 | Birmingham, AL | -0.6% | 2.0% |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | -0.9% | 2.2'% |
| 6 | EI Paso | -0.9% | 1.9% |
| 7 | Rochester NY | -1.1% | 1.90% |
| 8 | Dallas-Irving | -1.2% | 2.3% |
| 9 | Indianapolis | -1.3% | 2.3% |
| 10 | Buffalo NY | -1.3% | 2.5% |
| 11 | Wichila KS | -1.5% | 1.0% |
| 12 | Columbia SC | -1.6% | 0.5% |
| 13 | Little Rock AR | -1.6% | 1.2% |
| 14 | Oklahoma City OK | -1.9% | 0.7% |
| 15 | Austin TX | -1.9% | 0.7% |
| 16 | Youngstown OH | -1.9% | 3.8% |
| 17 | Tulsa OK | -2.1% | 2.1% |
| 18 | Omaha NE | -2.1% | 1.1% |
| 19 | Houston TX | -2.3% | 1.7% |
| 20 | Alban NY | -2.4% | 0.6% |
| 21 | Syracuse NY | -2.4% | 2.0% |
| 22 | Greenville SC | -2.4% | 0.1% |
| 23 | San Antonio | -2.6% | 0.6% |
| 24 | Gary Id | -2.6% | 0.5% |
| 25 | Dayton OH | -2.6% | 1.6% |
| 26 | Greensboro-High Point NC | -2.7% | 0.1% |
| 27 | Grand Rapid MI | -2.8% | 3.3% |
| 28 | Cincinnati | -3.1% | 1.8% |
| 29 | Toledo | -3.1% | 2.8% |
| 30 | Atlanta-Marietta | -3.3% | 0.9% |
| 31 | Cleveland | -3.3% | 3.4% |
| 32 | St. louis | -3.4% | 1.3% |
| 33 | Columbus OH | -3.4% | 1.6% |
| 34 | Nashville | -3.5% | 0.00/.. |
| 35 | Kansas City | -3.6% | 0.6% |
| 36 | Louisville | -3.9% | 0.3% |
| 37 | Akron | -4.0% | 1.7% |
| 38 | Knoxville TN | -4.1% | -0.2% |
| 39 | Memphis | -4.4% | 2.9% |
| 40 | Lake/Kenosha counties IL-WI | -4.7% | 0.3% |
| 41 | Milwaukee | -5.0% | -1.0% |
| 42 | Charlotte | -5.90% | -1.6% |
| 43 | MinneapoIis-St Paul | -6.0% | -0.5% |
| 44 | Baton Rouge | -6.00% | 0.70% |
| 45 | Raleigh | -6.20% | -0.50% |
| 46 | Richmond | -6.80% | -1.90% |
| 47 | Chicago | -6.80% | -0.20% |
| 48 | Springfield MA | -8.20% | 1.70% |
| 49 | Detroit·Dearborn | -8.20% | 2.10% |
| 50 | Albuquerque | -9.20% | -1.40% |
| 51 | Philadelphia | -9.50% | -1.50% |
| 52 | Seattle-Believue | -10.10% | -1.20% |
| 53 | Essex Count. MA | -10.60% | 2.90% |
| 54 | Poukeepsie NY | -10.70% | 1.00% |
| 55 | Wilmington DL | -10.90% | 0.20% |
| 56 | New Haven | -11.10% | -1.70% |
| 57 | Camden NJ | -11.30% | -0.60% |
| 58 | Farmington Hills-Troy MI | -11.70% | -8.20% |
| 59 | Providence | -11.70% | -1.90% |
| 60 | Worcester MA | -12.10% | 1.80% |
| 61 | Allentonw PA | -12.30% | -4.40% |
| 62 | Cambridge-Newton MA | -12.50% | 1.60% |
| 63 | Salt Lake City | -12.60% | -3.60% |
| 64 | Nassau / Suffork | -12.60% | -4.50% |
| 65 | Tacoma | -12.80% | -2.30% |
| 66 | Denver | ·12,9% | -1.5% |
| 67 | Virginia Beach | ·13.3% | -4.1% |
| 68 | Edison NJ | -13.4% | -4.7% |
| 69 | Hartford CT | ·13.4% | -2,5% |
| 70 | Newark-Union NJ | -13.6% | -1.7% |
| 71 | Honolulu | '14.1% | -3.1% |
| 72 | Oxnard CA | -14.4% | 3.8% |
| 73 | Bethesda-Gaitherbur MD | -14.6% | -1.6% |
| 74 | Portland-Beverton OR | ·14.8% | -4,8% |
| 75 | W Palm Beach - Boca Raton | -14.9% | -3.0% |
| 76 | Sarasota-Brandenton FL | -15.1% | -2,5% |
| 77 | San Francisco- San Mateo | -15.1% | 0.4% |
| 78 | Baltimore | -15.20% | -5.8% |
| 79 | New York City | -15.20% | -3,5% |
| 80 | Boston Quincy | -15.4% | -1.0% |
| 81 | Jacksonville | ·15,6% | -5,4% |
| 82 | Stamford CT | -15.8% | -2,4% |
| 83 | Tampa-St. Petersburg | ·17,0% | -3.8% |
| 84 | Tucson | -17.4% | -4.6% |
| 85 | Las Vegas NV | -17.5% | -2.8% |
| 86 | Phoenix | -18.3% | -1.6% |
| 87 | San Jose CA | -18.5% | -4,5% |
| 88 | Oakland CA | -18.6% | -3.7% |
| 89 | Fort Lauderdale FL | -18.8% | -4.6% |
| 90 | Orlando-Kissimmee | -19.8% | -7.1% |
| 91 | Washington DC | ·19.9% | -5.7% |
| 92 | Bakersfield CA | -20.9% | -2.5% |
| 93 | San Diego CA | -21.1% | -2.9% |
| 94 | Fresno CA | -21.6% | -3.3% |
| 95 | Santa Ana-Anaheim | -22.0% | -3.5% |
| 96 | Sacramento | -22.2% | 2.3% |
| 97 | Miami-Miami Beach | -22.8% | -6.4% |
| 98 | Riverside CA | -23.3% | -4.8% |
| 99 | Stockton CA | -24.7% | -4.0% |
| 100 | Los Angeles CA | -24.90% | -5.1% |
Here are key findings!
- Out of 100 MSA, 52 MSA will see 10%+ property value decline. 6 MSA sees 20%+ decline.
- The biggest decline is expected in Central Valley and in Sounthern California.
- Famous bubble area such Las Vegas, Phoenix and key Metro in Florida also face 20%+ decline.
- While NYC area has resisted real estate decline, they begin to fact 15%+ decline in its suburbs.
- Real estate market in Pacific Northwest Cities such as Seattle and Portland has been steady. However, starting 2009, they face 10% / 15% decline respectively.
- McAllen Tx and New Orleans LA are only two MSA that shows property value apprecitions. Austin, my main investment market sees "very minor" decline at -1.9%.
I think this forecast is directionally correct. So, my advaice for those who are considering real estate investments in the MSA with 15%+ decline is "wait and see" for a while. I think it take at least 2-3 quarters to see the bottom of the market. Enjoy happy investing!!!!!!
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