Sunday 25 January 2009

2009 Real Estate Market Outlook by Fortune Magazine


This is Fortune Magazine's forecast on 2009 real estate by metropolitan area. Fortune has come up with this figure with Moody's Economy.com. http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0812/gallery.worst_markets.fortune/

Rank Metro 2009 2010
1 McAllen-Mission TX 2.8% 8.0%
2 New Orleans LA 0.6% 4.2%
3 Fort Worth-Arlington TX -0.4% 3.1%
4 Birmingham, AL -0.6% 2.0%
5 Pittsburgh -0.9% 2.2'%
6 EI Paso -0.9% 1.9%
7 Rochester NY -1.1% 1.90%
8 Dallas-Irving -1.2% 2.3%
9 Indianapolis -1.3% 2.3%
10 Buffalo NY -1.3% 2.5%
11 Wichila KS -1.5% 1.0%
12 Columbia SC -1.6% 0.5%
13 Little Rock AR -1.6% 1.2%
14 Oklahoma City OK -1.9% 0.7%
15 Austin TX -1.9% 0.7%
16 Youngstown OH -1.9% 3.8%
17 Tulsa OK -2.1% 2.1%
18 Omaha NE -2.1% 1.1%
19 Houston TX -2.3% 1.7%
20 Alban NY -2.4% 0.6%
21 Syracuse NY -2.4% 2.0%
22 Greenville SC -2.4% 0.1%
23 San Antonio -2.6% 0.6%
24 Gary Id -2.6% 0.5%
25 Dayton OH -2.6% 1.6%
26 Greensboro-High Point NC -2.7% 0.1%
27 Grand Rapid MI -2.8% 3.3%
28 Cincinnati -3.1% 1.8%
29 Toledo -3.1% 2.8%
30 Atlanta-Marietta -3.3% 0.9%
31 Cleveland -3.3% 3.4%
32 St. louis -3.4% 1.3%
33 Columbus OH -3.4% 1.6%
34 Nashville -3.5% 0.00/..
35 Kansas City -3.6% 0.6%
36 Louisville -3.9% 0.3%
37 Akron -4.0% 1.7%
38 Knoxville TN -4.1% -0.2%
39 Memphis -4.4% 2.9%
40 Lake/Kenosha counties IL-WI -4.7% 0.3%
41 Milwaukee -5.0% -1.0%
42 Charlotte -5.90% -1.6%
43 MinneapoIis-St Paul -6.0% -0.5%
44 Baton Rouge -6.00% 0.70%
45 Raleigh -6.20% -0.50%
46 Richmond -6.80% -1.90%
47 Chicago -6.80% -0.20%
48 Springfield MA -8.20% 1.70%
49 Detroit·Dearborn -8.20% 2.10%
50 Albuquerque -9.20% -1.40%
51 Philadelphia -9.50% -1.50%
52 Seattle-Believue -10.10% -1.20%
53 Essex Count. MA -10.60% 2.90%
54 Poukeepsie NY -10.70% 1.00%
55 Wilmington DL -10.90% 0.20%
56 New Haven -11.10% -1.70%
57 Camden NJ -11.30% -0.60%
58 Farmington Hills-Troy MI -11.70% -8.20%
59 Providence -11.70% -1.90%
60 Worcester MA -12.10% 1.80%
61 Allentonw PA -12.30% -4.40%
62 Cambridge-Newton MA -12.50% 1.60%
63 Salt Lake City -12.60% -3.60%
64 Nassau / Suffork -12.60% -4.50%
65 Tacoma -12.80% -2.30%
66 Denver ·12,9% -1.5%
67 Virginia Beach ·13.3% -4.1%
68 Edison NJ -13.4% -4.7%
69 Hartford CT ·13.4% -2,5%
70 Newark-Union NJ -13.6% -1.7%
71 Honolulu '14.1% -3.1%
72 Oxnard CA -14.4% 3.8%
73 Bethesda-Gaitherbur MD -14.6% -1.6%
74 Portland-Beverton OR ·14.8% -4,8%
75 W Palm Beach - Boca Raton -14.9% -3.0%
76 Sarasota-Brandenton FL -15.1% -2,5%
77 San Francisco- San Mateo -15.1% 0.4%
78 Baltimore -15.20% -5.8%
79 New York City -15.20% -3,5%
80 Boston Quincy -15.4% -1.0%
81 Jacksonville ·15,6% -5,4%
82 Stamford CT -15.8% -2,4%
83 Tampa-St. Petersburg ·17,0% -3.8%
84 Tucson -17.4% -4.6%
85 Las Vegas NV -17.5% -2.8%
86 Phoenix -18.3% -1.6%
87 San Jose CA -18.5% -4,5%
88 Oakland CA -18.6% -3.7%
89 Fort Lauderdale FL -18.8% -4.6%
90 Orlando-Kissimmee -19.8% -7.1%
91 Washington DC ·19.9% -5.7%
92 Bakersfield CA -20.9% -2.5%
93 San Diego CA -21.1% -2.9%
94 Fresno CA -21.6% -3.3%
95 Santa Ana-Anaheim -22.0% -3.5%
96 Sacramento -22.2% 2.3%
97 Miami-Miami Beach -22.8% -6.4%
98 Riverside CA -23.3% -4.8%
99 Stockton CA -24.7% -4.0%
100 Los Angeles CA -24.90% -5.1%


Here are key findings!

  • Out of 100 MSA, 52 MSA will see 10%+ property value decline. 6 MSA sees 20%+ decline.
  • The biggest decline is expected in Central Valley and in Sounthern California.
  • Famous bubble area such Las Vegas, Phoenix and key Metro in Florida also face 20%+ decline.
  • While NYC area has resisted real estate decline, they begin to fact 15%+ decline in its suburbs.
  • Real estate market in Pacific Northwest Cities such as Seattle and Portland has been steady. However, starting 2009, they face 10% / 15% decline respectively.
  • McAllen Tx and New Orleans LA are only two MSA that shows property value apprecitions. Austin, my main investment market sees "very minor" decline at -1.9%.

I think this forecast is directionally correct. So, my advaice for those who are considering real estate investments in the MSA with 15%+ decline is "wait and see" for a while. I think it take at least 2-3 quarters to see the bottom of the market. Enjoy happy investing!!!!!!

No comments:

Post a Comment