In previous posting, I have introduced the MSA(Metropolitan Stastical Area) where price decline deepest. This positing is about the ranking of MSA where real estate price is stable. This forecast is also issued by Moody's Economy.com and Forbes.com and percentage of declined is from Q2 2008.
|Rank||Metro Area||Decline from Peak||Bottom Expected|
|3||Pittsburgh, Pa.||-0.30%||end 2009|
|5||El Paso, Texas||-1.00%||mid-2010|
|6||Tulsa, Okla.||-1.10%||late 2009|
|7||Houston, Texas||-1.10%||late 2009|
|8||Charleston, S.C.||-1.10%||late 2009|
|9||Little Rock, Ark.||-1.20%||mid-2010|
|10||Birmingham, Ala.||-1.20%||early 2010|
|11||Fort Worth, Texas||-1.70%||mid-2010|
|12||New Orleans, La.||-2.10%||end 2009|
|13||Dallas, Texas||-2.10%||Late 2010|
|14||Austin, Texas||-2.40%||End 2009|
|15||Rochester, N.Y.||-2.40%||early 2010|
|16||San Antonio, Texas||-2.50%||late 2010|
|17||Augusta, Ga.||-2.60%||end 2010|
|18||Baton Rouge, La.||-2.70%||late 2010|
|19||Memphis, Tenn.||-2.80%||end 2009|
|20||Oklahoma City, Okla.||-2.80%||late 2010|
|21||Albany, N.Y.||-3.00%||late 2010|
|22||Indianapolis, Ind.||-3.20%||late 2010|
|23||Columbia, S.C.||-3.50%||end 2010|
Here is key findings!
- MSA in above "stable" ranking shares two characteristics; 1) No visible real estate bubble; 2) Fairly healthy regional economy.
- Again, key MSA in Texas (such as McAllen、El Paso、Houston、Austin Dallas/FW、San Antoniao) doing very well. In these market, I consider very low risk in further price decline.
- Rust Belt MSA(such as Syracuse、Pittsburg、Buffalo、Rochester、Scranton)'s real estate price is forecasted to be stable. In these MSA, due to decline of manufacturing industory, there have been siginificant decline of job and populated ----- it has kept real estate from appreciating.
- One notable trend is that major MSA in North Carolina(such as Charlotte and Raleigh) is out of ranking. Up until recently, NC MSA were considered real estate blight spot. However, economic slow down caused by financial (Charlotte) and textile (Greenville) industory seems to cause major decline in real estate price in NC.
Anyway, I think MSA listed above is fairly safe price to invest as long as you can purchase "prime location" properties 10-20% below fair market value. As transactions are still very slow, it is great opportunity to buy at significant discount!
Enjoy Happy Investing!!!!