Saturday, 24 January 2009

Ranking of Metro where Real Estate Price is Stable. - 2009 Real Estate Forecast

In previous posting, I have introduced the MSA(Metropolitan Stastical Area) where price decline deepest. This positing is about the ranking of MSA where real estate price is stable. This forecast is also issued by Moody's and and percentage of declined is from Q2 2008.

Rank Metro Area Decline from Peak Bottom Expected
1 McAllen, Texas 0% N/A
2 Syracuse, N.Y. 0% N/A
3 Pittsburgh, Pa. -0.30% end 2009
4 Buffalo, N.Y. -1.00% mid-2010
5 El Paso, Texas -1.00% mid-2010
6 Tulsa, Okla. -1.10% late 2009
7 Houston, Texas -1.10% late 2009
8 Charleston, S.C. -1.10% late 2009
9 Little Rock, Ark. -1.20% mid-2010
10 Birmingham, Ala. -1.20% early 2010
11 Fort Worth, Texas -1.70% mid-2010
12 New Orleans, La. -2.10% end 2009
13 Dallas, Texas -2.10% Late 2010
14 Austin, Texas -2.40% End 2009
15 Rochester, N.Y. -2.40% early 2010
16 San Antonio, Texas -2.50% late 2010
17 Augusta, Ga. -2.60% end 2010
18 Baton Rouge, La. -2.70% late 2010
19 Memphis, Tenn. -2.80% end 2009
20 Oklahoma City, Okla. -2.80% late 2010
21 Albany, N.Y. -3.00% late 2010
22 Indianapolis, Ind. -3.20% late 2010
23 Columbia, S.C. -3.50% end 2010
24 Scranton, Pa. -4% mid-2010
25 Omaha, Neb. -4.30% mid-2010

Here is key findings!

- MSA in above "stable" ranking shares two characteristics; 1) No visible real estate bubble; 2) Fairly healthy regional economy.

- Again, key MSA in Texas (such as McAllen、El Paso、Houston、Austin Dallas/FW、San Antoniao) doing very well. In these market, I consider very low risk in further price decline.

- Rust Belt MSA(such as Syracuse、Pittsburg、Buffalo、Rochester、Scranton)'s real estate price is forecasted to be stable. In these MSA, due to decline of manufacturing industory, there have been siginificant decline of job and populated ----- it has kept real estate from appreciating.

- One notable trend is that major MSA in North Carolina(such as Charlotte and Raleigh) is out of ranking. Up until recently, NC MSA were considered real estate blight spot. However, economic slow down caused by financial (Charlotte) and textile (Greenville) industory seems to cause major decline in real estate price in NC.

Anyway, I think MSA listed above is fairly safe price to invest as long as you can purchase "prime location" properties 10-20% below fair market value. As transactions are still very slow, it is great opportunity to buy at significant discount!

Enjoy Happy Investing!!!!

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