Monday 23 March 2009

Which Metro has Population Increase?

US Census has announced population increase/decrease by MSA (Metropolitan Statical Area). The data is based between July 1 2007 and July 1 2008.

Among 363 MSA, here is Top 25 MSA with growth rate:

Rank Metropolitan statistical area % in 2008 % in 2007
1 Raleigh-Cary, NC 4.3 4.7
2 Austin-Round Rock, TX 3.8 4.3
3 Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, WA 3.5 2.4
4 Palm Coast, FL 3.5 7.2
5 Gainesville, GA 3.5 4.5
6 Provo-Orem, UT 3.4 2.6
7 Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC 3.4 4.2
8 Idaho Falls, ID 3.2 NA
9 Logan, UT-ID 3.2 NA
10 St. George, UT 3.1 5.1
11 Grand Junction, CO 3.1 NA
12 Myrtle Beach-North Myrtle Beach-Conway, SC 3.1 4.2
13 Bend, OR 3.0 NA
14 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 3.0 3
15 Olympia, WA 2.9 2.3
16 Greeley, CO 2.9 3.6
17 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 2.8 3.3
18 Ogden-Clearfield, UT 2.7 2.9
19 Sioux Falls, SD 2.6 2.5
20 Valdosta, GA 2.6 NA
21 Midland, TX 2.6 NA
22 Yuma, AZ 2.5 NA
23 Durham, NC 2.5 2.2
24 Dover, DE 2.4 NA
25 Coeur d'Alene, ID 2.4 NA

Among MSA with 1 million population, here is Top 25 MSA with the highest growth rate.

Rank Metropolitan statistical area % in 2008 % in 2007
1 Raleigh-Cary, NC 4.3 4.7
2 Austin-Round Rock, TX 3.8 4.3
3 Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC 3.4 4.2
4 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 2.8 3.3
5 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 2.4 2.7
6 San Antonio, TX 2.3 2.8
7 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 2.3 2.2
8 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 2.2 2.9
9 Denver-Aurora, CO 2.2 2.2
10 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 2.1 3.3
11 Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN 2.0 2.3
12 Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA 1.9 1.9
13 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 1.8 1.6
14 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 1.4 1.4
15 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 1.4 0.9
16 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 1.4 0.9
17 Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA 1.3 1.4
18 Orlando-Kissimmee, FL 1.3 1.7
19 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 1.2 2.2
20 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 1.1 0.9
21 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 1.0 1.1
22 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 0.8 0.7
23 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 0.7 0.1
24 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 0.7 0.4
25 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 0.4 0.2

Following trend from July 2006 - 2007 data, affordable MSA without real estate bubble such as Raleigh, Ausitn, Charlotte and major Texas metros are steadily increasing population.

Among real estate bubble area, Phoenix is doing fairly well.

If you look at this data from 3-4 years ago, real estate bubble MSAs such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, Florida and California's Central Valley were ranked very high in population growth rate. These MSAs have been hit hard by real estate related job degrease and recession. Therefore population growth has been slowed down dramatically.

One of the key criteria to determine place to invest, population (and job) growth is critical as it directly increase the demand for housing (thus increased property value or rental income). I truly think that, once real estate market hit the bottom, MSAs such as Austin Tx, where population and job is growing, will see first rebound in real estate markets!

Happy Investing!!!!

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